Season 2026–27

Games, one night at a time.

Choose a slate. Open a matchup. Compare the published forecast with its evidence.

Forecast published Oct 14, 2026, 3:43 PM UTC · 1,200 scheduled games

Game date · Eastern timeFranchise

Published games by date

Tuesday, October 20

3 published games

3:00 PM ET

BOS

1582

DET

1588

BOSDET

43.3%56.7%

Proj. margin: DET +2.6
Proj. total: 217.6
Proj. score: 107–110

No sportsbook line published for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the forecast against.

Match detail

7:00 PM ET

PHI

1522

1674

PHINY

23.3%76.7%

Proj. margin: NY +9.7
Proj. total: 218.7
Proj. score: 105–114

No sportsbook line published for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the forecast against.

Match detail

9:30 PM ET

OKC

1642

1657

OKCSA

41.5%58.5%

Proj. margin: SA +3.2
Proj. total: 219.8
Proj. score: 108–112

No sportsbook line published for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the forecast against.

Match detail

Published pre-game probabilities. This slate does not imply live scores or confirmed player availability.

Full season calendar 25 weeks

Evidence

Sep 28, 2026, 7:54 PM UTC

Forecaster	Brier	Gap to market
Historical market	0.2070	—
This model	0.2141	+0.0071

Games scored: 14,600
Walk-forward n: 25,749
Walk-forward Brier: 0.2106
Calibration error: 0.0112

historical walk-forward; not a live published record - the historical market is better (paired bootstrap 0.00712, 95% CI [0.00571, 0.00850]). Backfilled prices have no independently verified closing timestamp. Why the market is the benchmark

model 2026.08.1+6cc7e1cb · generated Oct 14, 2026, 3:43 PM UTC