Season 2027

Projected standings

20,000 Monte Carlo seasons. No games played yet, so every number here comes from ratings alone — regressed toward the mean for the offseason, because the draft and the cap are built to pull teams together.

Each simulated season holds one correlated strength offset per team for all 82 games — without it these odds would be roughly twice as confident as any market price. How the simulation works

Where the season finishes

20,000 simulations

Eastern Conference

The dot is the mean projected win total; the bar is the 10th to 90th percentile across the simulated seasons. The dashed line is .500. Read the overlap, not the order — where two bars cover the same ground, the model is not claiming to know which team finishes ahead.

Western Conference

The title race

Live · published in advance

Eastern Conference

New York KnicksDetroit PistonsBoston Celticsfield (12)

One point per day the forecast ran. These numbers were published in advance. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	NY	DET	BOS	Field
2026-08-15	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-16	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-17	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-18	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-19	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-20	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-21	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-22	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-23	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-24	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-25	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-26	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-27	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-28	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-29	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-30	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-08-31	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-01	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-02	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-03	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-04	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-05	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-06	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-07	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-08	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-09	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-10	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-11	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-12	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-13	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-14	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-15	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-16	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-17	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-18	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-19	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-20	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-21	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-22	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-23	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-24	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-25	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-26	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-27	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-28	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-29	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-09-30	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-01	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-02	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-03	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-04	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-05	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-06	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-07	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-08	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-09	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-10	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-11	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-12	46.4%	12.4%	11.9%	29.3%
2026-10-13	46.6%	12.6%	11.3%	29.6%
2026-10-14	46.6%	12.6%	11.3%	29.6%

Western Conference

San Antonio SpursOklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggetsfield (12)

Table view

Date	SA	OKC	DEN	Field
2026-08-15	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-16	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-17	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-18	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-19	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-20	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-21	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-22	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-23	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-24	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-25	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-26	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-27	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-28	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-29	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-30	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-08-31	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-01	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-02	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-03	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-04	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-05	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-06	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-07	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-08	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-09	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-10	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-11	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-12	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-13	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-14	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-15	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-16	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-17	38.1%	30.9%	9.1%	22.0%
2026-09-18	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-19	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-20	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-21	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-22	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-23	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-24	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-25	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-26	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-27	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-28	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-29	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-09-30	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-01	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-02	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-03	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-04	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-05	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-06	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-07	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-08	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-09	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-10	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-11	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-12	38.1%	30.9%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-13	37.8%	31.2%	9.0%	22.0%
2026-10-14	37.8%	31.2%	9.0%	22.0%

Eastern Conference

#	Team	Proj. W-L	Range	Playoffs	Play-in	Conf.	Title
1	New York Knicks	55.0–27.0	49–60	100%	1%	46.6%	29.0%
2	Detroit Pistons	47.7–34.3	42–53	95%	16%	12.6%	5.3%
3	Boston Celtics	47.3–34.7	42–53	93%	17%	11.3%	4.6%
4	Charlotte Hornets	46.6–35.4	41–52	91%	22%	9.5%	3.6%
5	Cleveland Cavaliers	45.3–36.7	40–51	86%	31%	6.9%	2.5%
6	Orlando Magic	43.3–38.7	37–49	74%	48%	3.3%	1.0%
7	Toronto Raptors	42.7–39.3	37–49	70%	52%	3.2%	1.1%
8	Philadelphia 76ers	41.9–40.1	36–48	62%	56%	2.5%	0.8%
9	Atlanta Hawks	41.9–40.1	36–48	62%	56%	2.4%	0.7%
10	Miami Heat	41.4–40.6	35–47	57%	60%	1.8%	0.5%
11	Milwaukee Bucks	31.7–50.3	26–38	3%	13%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Chicago Bulls	31.5–50.5	26–37	3%	12%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Indiana Pacers	31.3–50.7	25–37	3%	12%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Brooklyn Nets	27.0–55.0	21–33	0%	2%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Washington Wizards	25.1–57.0	20–31	0%	1%	0.0%	0.0%

Western Conference

#	Team	Proj. W-L	Range	Playoffs	Play-in	Conf.	Title
1	San Antonio Spurs	54.0–28.0	48–59	100%	1%	37.8%	22.2%
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	52.9–29.1	47–58	100%	1%	31.2%	17.6%
3	Denver Nuggets	46.3–35.7	40–52	93%	18%	9.0%	3.7%
4	Houston Rockets	44.9–37.1	39–51	89%	27%	5.6%	2.0%
5	Los Angeles Lakers	44.5–37.5	39–50	86%	31%	5.6%	2.0%
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	43.4–38.6	37–49	81%	39%	4.4%	1.5%
7	Phoenix Suns	41.6–40.4	36–48	68%	52%	2.1%	0.7%
8	LA Clippers	41.6–40.4	36–48	68%	51%	2.1%	0.6%
9	Portland Trail Blazers	41.0–41.0	35–47	64%	55%	1.9%	0.6%
10	Golden State Warriors	36.3–45.8	30–42	24%	49%	0.2%	0.1%
11	New Orleans Pelicans	34.9–47.1	29–41	16%	38%	0.1%	0.0%
12	Dallas Mavericks	32.1–49.9	26–38	6%	18%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Sacramento Kings	30.6–51.4	25–36	3%	11%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Utah Jazz	28.5–53.5	23–34	1%	5%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Memphis Grizzlies	27.8–54.2	22–34	1%	4%	0.0%	0.0%

Evidence

Sep 28, 2026, 7:54 PM UTC

Forecaster	Brier	Gap to market
Historical market	0.2070	—
This model	0.2141	+0.0071

Games scored: 14,600
Walk-forward n: 25,749
Walk-forward Brier: 0.2106
Calibration error: 0.0112

historical walk-forward; not a live published record - the historical market is better (paired bootstrap 0.00712, 95% CI [0.00571, 0.00850]). Backfilled prices have no independently verified closing timestamp. Why the market is the benchmark

model 2026.08.1+6cc7e1cb · generated Oct 14, 2026, 3:43 PM UTC