The games nobody saw coming

25,749 games across 23 seasons, ranked three ways — every probability a reconstruction that never saw the answer.

Backtest

Biggest upsets

The lowest probability the model gave a team that then won — most wrong first.

#	Game	Season	Date	Model gave the winner	Market gave the winner
1	PHX beat SA 108–105	2016–17	Sat, Jan 14	4.7%	22.6%
2	MIN beat GS 124–117	2015–16	Tue, Apr 5	6.1%	10.1%
3	LAL beat GS 112–95	2015–16	Sun, Mar 6	7.2%	13.8%
4	PHX beat SA 105–101	2012–13	Wed, Feb 27	7.3%	11.4%
5	DET beat DAL 107–89	2023–24	Fri, Apr 12	7.4%	no line
6	WSH beat MIN 105–103	2024–25	Sat, Feb 1	7.5%	no line
7	BOS beat SA 91–85	2006–07	Sat, Mar 17	7.6%	no line
8	LAL beat SA 113–100	2013–14	Wed, Apr 16	8.2%	27.4%
9	PHI beat MIA 100–87	2013–14	Wed, Apr 16	8.3%	34.0%
10	SAC beat ORL 111–105	2010–11	Wed, Feb 23	8.6%	no line
11	NY beat DET 98–94	2007–08	Tue, Apr 8	8.6%	no line
12	SAC beat GS 110–106	2017–18	Mon, Nov 27	8.6%	10.5%
13	PHX beat GS 115–111	2018–19	Sun, Mar 10	8.7%	4.8%
14	BKN beat CHI 97–85	2011–12	Sat, Feb 18	8.8%	no line
15	ATL beat PHX 120–111	2006–07	Fri, Feb 9	9.0%	no line
16	MIN beat LAC 108–102	2015–16	Wed, Feb 3	9.0%	19.4%
17	NY beat ATL 112–108	2014–15	Mon, Apr 13	9.3%	16.4%
18	CHA beat TOR 99–96	2019–20	Fri, Feb 28	9.5%	9.6%
19	LAL beat SA 102–95	2016–17	Wed, Apr 5	9.6%	20.4%
20	CHI beat MIA 93–86EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - GAME 1	2012–13	Mon, May 6	9.7%	19.4%
21	BKN beat DET 107–105	2025–26	Sat, Mar 7	9.7%	13.2%
22	NY beat ORL 105–95	2008–09	Fri, Apr 10	9.9%	no line
23	CHA beat BOS 95–83	2007–08	Wed, Jan 9	10.0%	no line
24	DET beat OKC 120–104	2023–24	Sun, Jan 28	10.0%	no line
25	SAC beat PHX 116–109	2021–22	Sun, Apr 10	10.2%	17.0%
26	IND beat OKC 117–114	2025–26	Fri, Jan 23	10.2%	12.1%
27	SAC beat GS 98–93	2017–18	Fri, Mar 16	10.2%	21.2%
28	MIN beat DEN 106–100	2009–10	Sun, Nov 29	10.3%	no line
29	DET beat BOS 112–111	2021–22	Wed, Feb 16	10.3%	12.9%
30	WSH beat CLE 109–101	2008–09	Thu, Apr 2	10.3%	no line
31	ORL beat CLE 108–103	2024–25	Sun, Mar 16	10.4%	no line
32	MIL beat OKC 95–89	2012–13	Wed, Apr 17	10.6%	36.8%
33	PHI beat CLE 111–110	2008–09	Wed, Apr 15	10.8%	no line
34	TOR beat OKC 95–93	2010–11	Sun, Mar 20	10.8%	no line
35	PHX beat MIL 116–114	2018–19	Fri, Nov 23	10.8%	8.8%
36	NY beat DAL 128–94	2009–10	Sat, Mar 13	11.2%	no line
37	SAC beat LAL 114–113	2007–08	Sun, Mar 9	11.3%	no line
38	ATL beat CHI 103–95EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - GAME 1	2010–11	Mon, May 2	11.3%	no line
39	CHA beat MIN 128–125	2023–24	Mon, Jan 22	11.3%	no line
40	SAC beat LAL 100–95	2010–11	Fri, Jan 28	11.4%	no line
41	MIN beat UTAH 101–96	2020–21	Sat, Apr 24	11.4%	12.4%
42	ATL beat UTAH 99–94	2017–18	Tue, Mar 20	11.4%	7.6%
43	UTAH beat LAL 86–85	2010–11	Tue, Apr 5	11.5%	no line
44	BKN beat OKC 95–93	2013–14	Thu, Jan 2	11.7%	19.4%
45	PHI beat BOS 98–97	2009–10	Fri, Dec 18	11.7%	no line
46	POR beat SA 136–106	2012–13	Fri, Mar 8	11.7%	21.5%
47	PHX beat BOS 111–103	2018–19	Wed, Dec 19	11.7%	11.7%
48	CLE beat BOS 118–94East Semifinals - Game 2	2023–24	Thu, May 9	11.7%	no line
49	WSH beat BOS 96–90	2019–20	Thu, Aug 13	11.8%	53.8%
50	WSH beat CHI 87–84	2011–12	Mon, Apr 16	11.8%	no line
51	WSH beat DET 126–117	2025–26	Thu, Feb 5	11.8%	9.7%
52	OKC beat BOS 119–115	2020–21	Tue, Apr 27	11.9%	14.4%
53	OKC beat PHX 117–96	2021–22	Sun, Apr 3	12.0%	8.8%
54	CLE beat OKC 96–90	2011–12	Fri, Mar 9	12.0%	no line
55	MEM beat LAL 114–111	2007–08	Fri, Mar 28	12.1%	no line
56	CLE beat OKC 114–104	2013–14	Wed, Feb 26	12.2%	13.8%
57	BKN beat BOS 104–96	2009–10	Sat, Feb 27	12.2%	no line
58	GS beat DEN 116–100	2019–20	Tue, Mar 3	12.3%	7.7%
59	TOR beat DAL 84–76	2010–11	Tue, Dec 28	12.3%	no line
60	BKN beat CHA 103–94	2009–10	Tue, Feb 16	12.4%	no line
61	MIN beat PHX 123–119	2020–21	Thu, Mar 18	12.5%	16.4%
62	WSH beat UTAH 125–121	2020–21	Mon, Apr 12	12.5%	16.1%
63	NO beat MIN 119–115	2024–25	Wed, Mar 19	12.5%	no line
64	LAL beat BOS 112–104	2015–16	Wed, Dec 30	12.6%	17.4%
65	OKC beat LAC 117–112	2020–21	Sun, May 16	12.7%	24.5%
66	CLE beat MIA 102–90	2010–11	Tue, Mar 29	12.7%	no line
67	LAL beat HOU 122–116	2017–18	Wed, Dec 20	12.8%	7.7%
68	LAL beat SA 112–110	2014–15	Fri, Dec 12	12.9%	17.4%
69	CHA beat LAL 108–95	2007–08	Wed, Mar 26	12.9%	no line
70	WSH beat MIA 119–118	2024–25	Sun, Apr 13	12.9%	no line
71	ORL beat SA 95–83	2016–17	Tue, Nov 29	13.0%	18.3%
72	POR beat SA 110–106	2016–17	Wed, Mar 15	13.1%	22.6%
73	ORL beat LAC 104–101	2012–13	Sat, Jan 12	13.2%	16.4%
74	PHX beat MIL 114–105	2018–19	Mon, Mar 4	13.2%	9.4%
75	CHA beat GS 111–100	2017–18	Fri, Dec 29	13.3%	16.9%
76	MIN beat OKC 99–96	2015–16	Fri, Mar 11	13.4%	14.6%
77	WSH beat DET 129–125	2024–25	Thu, Mar 13	13.4%	no line
78	MIN beat GS 109–108	2007–08	Mon, Jan 21	13.5%	no line
79	ORL beat BKN 100–93	2021–22	Sat, Dec 18	13.6%	34.2%
80	BKN beat MEM 122–109	2016–17	Mon, Mar 6	13.6%	18.3%
81	GS beat POR 122–116	2009–10	Wed, Apr 14	13.6%	no line
82	BOS beat HOU 77–72	2006–07	Mon, Feb 26	13.7%	no line
83	DET beat MIL 115–106	2021–22	Mon, Jan 3	13.8%	6.5%
84	MIN beat ORL 102–101	2007–08	Fri, Apr 11	13.8%	no line
85	TOR beat ORL 99–95	2008–09	Wed, Apr 1	13.8%	no line
86	WSH beat MIA 86–84	2011–12	Sat, Apr 21	13.9%	no line
87	CHA beat CHI 91–81	2012–13	Mon, Dec 31	13.9%	18.3%
88	UTAH beat SA 127–114	2025–26	Sat, Dec 27	14.0%	13.2%
89	SA beat SAC 142–134	2022–23	Sun, Apr 2	14.0%	7.4%
90	DAL beat GS 126–91	2018–19	Sat, Mar 23	14.1%	9.2%
91	OKC beat GS 126–121	2007–08	Wed, Apr 16	14.2%	no line
92	DET beat MIA 106–99	2009–10	Fri, Apr 9	14.2%	no line
93	MIN beat NO 104–92	2010–11	Mon, Feb 7	14.2%	no line
94	MEM beat MIN 101–93	2017–18	Mon, Mar 26	14.3%	7.7%
95	DET beat DAL 108–95	2014–15	Wed, Jan 7	14.3%	22.6%
96	CHA beat SA 95–92	2006–07	Wed, Nov 15	14.4%	no line
97	DET beat BOS 98–88	2011–12	Wed, Feb 15	14.4%	no line
98	WSH beat ORL 92–91	2009–10	Fri, Feb 5	14.4%	no line
99	DET beat MIA 107–97	2013–14	Tue, Dec 3	14.4%	21.5%
100	DAL beat CLE 130–120	2025–26	Sun, Mar 15	14.5%	9.7%

Where it disagreed with the market

The widest gaps between this model and the closing line, with the result attached — the only games where the two forecasters are distinguishable at all.

How to read this board · model closer on 43.1% of all 14,600 priced games

Across all 14,600 priced games the model was closer 43.1% of the time. On the 100 widest disagreements below it was closer 33 times.

Read the first number, not the second. A hundred games is a hundred games; the full-corpus figure is the one with any power, and it agrees with the Brier comparison on the record page. A board sorted by disagreement is selected on exactly the games where one side was furthest out on a limb, which is not a fair test of either.

#	Game	Season	Date	Model	Market	Closer
1	BOS beat ORL 113–108	2025–26	Sun, Apr 12	75.7%	13.9%	model
2	MIL beat GS 108–95	2015–16	Sat, Dec 12	14.8%	68.8%	market
3	DEN beat PHI 115–103	2020–21	Sat, Jan 9	38.6%	90.0%	market
4	TOR beat UTAH 122–108	2021–22	Fri, Jan 7	40.5%	89.3%	market
5	CHA beat NY 110–96	2025–26	Sun, Apr 12	39.7%	87.9%	market
6	OKC beat WSH 103–80	2012–13	Wed, Mar 27	82.9%	35.4%	model
7	LAC beat PHX 119–114	2022–23	Sun, Apr 9	34.2%	81.1%	market
8	OKC beat MIL 127–116	2018–19	Wed, Apr 10	19.6%	64.0%	market
9	CLE beat SAC 101–90	2014–15	Fri, Jan 30	74.8%	31.3%	model
10	IND beat GS 92–81	2017–18	Tue, Mar 27	33.0%	76.4%	market
11	MIA beat CLE 96–95	2012–13	Mon, Apr 15	87.0%	44.0%	model
12	BKN beat ATL 127–110	2013–14	Thu, Jan 16	80.9%	38.2%	model
13	DEN beat PHI 125–124	2025–26	Mon, Jan 5	55.3%	12.7%	model
14	UTAH beat GS 110–91	2017–18	Sun, Mar 25	39.3%	81.7%	market
15	MIA beat MIL 88–77EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND - GAME 4	2012–13	Sun, Apr 28	76.4%	34.0%	model
16	PHX beat LAC 114–105	2015–16	Wed, Apr 13	25.1%	67.4%	market
17	PHX beat PHI 130–117	2019–20	Tue, Aug 11	39.4%	81.5%	market
18	WSH beat BOS 96–90	2019–20	Thu, Aug 13	11.8%	53.8%	market
19	MIA beat ATL 143–117	2025–26	Sun, Apr 12	38.5%	80.4%	market
20	POR beat BKN 134–133	2019–20	Thu, Aug 13	42.5%	83.6%	market
21	MEM beat MIL 137–114	2022–23	Fri, Apr 7	35.7%	76.8%	market
22	GS beat SAC 119–97	2022–23	Fri, Apr 7	42.8%	83.5%	market
23	CLE beat DEN 113–108	2025–26	Fri, Jan 2	47.1%	87.3%	market
24	SA beat MIN 123–101	2014–15	Sat, Dec 6	88.1%	50.0%	model
25	GS beat DEN 116–112	2013–14	Wed, Apr 16	62.9%	24.9%	model
26	PHI beat BKN 115–106	2022–23	Tue, Nov 22	63.7%	25.7%	model
27	SAC beat HOU 96–83	2017–18	Wed, Apr 11	17.8%	55.5%	market
28	CLE beat MIL 133–115	2021–22	Sun, Apr 10	40.7%	78.2%	market
29	OKC beat CHI 101–69	2017–18	Sat, Oct 28	40.5%	77.4%	market
30	CHI beat BKN 118–102	2015–16	Thu, Mar 17	66.6%	29.9%	model
31	MIL beat NY 95–79	2014–15	Thu, Jan 15	32.3%	68.8%	market
32	TOR beat ORL 98–93EAST 1ST ROUND - GAME 3	2018–19	Fri, Apr 19	45.0%	81.3%	market
33	NO beat LAC 113–100	2017–18	Mon, Apr 9	44.1%	80.3%	market
34	MIL beat PHX 132–122	2021–22	Sun, Mar 6	42.5%	78.7%	market
35	MIA beat CHI 94–91EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - GAME 5	2012–13	Wed, May 15	88.9%	53.0%	model
36	GS beat POR 127–118	2019–20	Mon, Nov 4	48.7%	12.9%	model
37	TOR beat LAL 113–104	2019–20	Sun, Nov 10	52.7%	17.2%	model
38	MIA beat MIL 119–114East 1st Round - Game 4	2022–23	Mon, Apr 24	60.5%	24.9%	model
39	MIL beat DEN 107–99	2022–23	Wed, Jan 25	51.1%	86.5%	market
40	MIL beat PHI 118–109	2021–22	Tue, Nov 9	37.3%	72.5%	market
41	LAC beat BKN 124–116	2022–23	Mon, Feb 6	40.7%	75.8%	market
42	TOR beat BOS 115–112	2021–22	Mon, Mar 28	42.0%	76.8%	market
43	SA beat GS 127–110	2019–20	Fri, Nov 1	38.0%	72.6%	market
44	BOS beat BKN 110–97	2017–18	Wed, Apr 11	71.5%	37.1%	model
45	MIA beat LAL 115–104NBA Finals - Game 3	2019–20	Sun, Oct 4	54.9%	20.6%	model
46	UTAH beat OKC 110–109	2020–21	Mon, Dec 28	44.5%	78.7%	market
47	MIL beat LAL 112–97	2020–21	Wed, Mar 31	42.2%	76.3%	market
48	IND beat ORL 101–86	2013–14	Wed, Apr 16	66.7%	32.6%	model
49	MIL beat ORL 121–107EAST 1ST ROUND - GAME 3	2019–20	Sat, Aug 22	53.9%	88.0%	market
50	LAL beat MIA 102–96NBA Finals - Game 4	2019–20	Tue, Oct 6	41.7%	75.7%	market
51	BOS beat LAL 121–113	2020–21	Thu, Apr 15	39.4%	73.4%	market
52	BKN beat NY 110–98	2021–22	Wed, Apr 6	37.9%	71.9%	market
53	LAL beat PHX 121–107	2022–23	Fri, Apr 7	54.4%	88.3%	market
54	GS beat SA 124–120	2021–22	Tue, Feb 1	64.0%	30.1%	model
55	LAL beat CHA 120–101	2019–20	Sun, Oct 27	58.2%	91.9%	market
56	BOS beat SAC 114–97	2015–16	Thu, Dec 3	83.4%	50.0%	model
57	GS beat LAC 132–105WEST 1ST ROUND - GAME 3	2018–19	Thu, Apr 18	48.2%	81.4%	market
58	DET beat CLE 89–79	2012–13	Mon, Dec 3	67.1%	34.0%	model
59	PHI beat NO 107–93	2015–16	Tue, Apr 5	27.3%	60.4%	market
60	DAL beat PHX 113–108	2016–17	Thu, Jan 12	75.4%	42.5%	model
61	MIL beat BOS 127–121	2021–22	Thu, Apr 7	43.9%	76.7%	market
62	GS beat LAC 129–110WEST 1ST ROUND - GAME 6	2018–19	Fri, Apr 26	51.1%	83.9%	market
63	SA beat OKC 116–106	2025–26	Wed, Feb 4	45.7%	78.3%	market
64	LAC beat MIA 125–118	2020–21	Mon, Feb 15	71.5%	39.0%	model
65	DEN beat SA 102–98	2015–16	Fri, Apr 8	26.5%	58.9%	market
66	MIL beat ORL 121–106EAST 1ST ROUND - GAME 4	2019–20	Mon, Aug 24	56.7%	89.1%	market
67	DEN beat MIL 108–104	2025–26	Sun, Jan 11	66.0%	33.6%	model
68	DEN beat TOR 106–103	2025–26	Wed, Dec 31	61.3%	29.1%	model
69	TOR beat CHI 117–100	2017–18	Thu, Oct 19	58.3%	90.4%	market
70	WSH beat BOS 125–124	2017–18	Wed, Mar 14	30.3%	62.1%	market
71	MIN beat GS 125–119	2019–20	Fri, Nov 8	53.9%	85.6%	market
72	TOR beat DEN 117–109	2019–20	Fri, Aug 14	74.7%	43.1%	model
73	ATL beat MIL 111–103	2013–14	Wed, Apr 16	69.8%	38.2%	model
74	PHX beat LAC 129–124West 1st Round - Game 3	2022–23	Thu, Apr 20	43.5%	74.9%	market
75	TOR beat CLE 116–104	2018–19	Wed, Oct 17	59.1%	90.4%	market
76	PHX beat DEN 100–93	2022–23	Fri, Mar 31	55.8%	87.1%	market
77	ATL beat LAC 108–99	2020–21	Tue, Jan 26	36.6%	67.9%	market
78	ATL beat MIA 118–103	2020–21	Fri, Apr 23	60.9%	29.8%	model
79	LAC beat TOR 98–88	2019–20	Mon, Nov 11	49.6%	80.7%	market
80	CHA beat DAL 110–104	2022–23	Sun, Mar 26	44.7%	13.8%	model
81	MIA beat LAL 110–104	2020–21	Thu, Apr 8	49.5%	80.4%	market
82	LAL beat NO 110–98	2020–21	Sun, May 16	49.5%	80.3%	market
83	BKN beat CHA 132–121	2021–22	Tue, Mar 8	32.6%	63.3%	market
84	MIL beat OKC 85–78	2014–15	Tue, Nov 11	36.7%	67.4%	market
85	MIA beat MIL 103–94EAST SEMIFINALS - Game 5	2019–20	Tue, Sep 8	35.9%	66.5%	market
86	UTAH beat DAL 99–93West 1st Round - Game 1	2021–22	Sat, Apr 16	36.5%	67.1%	market
87	BOS beat MEM 139–110	2021–22	Sun, Apr 10	47.5%	78.0%	market
88	DEN beat MIL 102–100	2025–26	Fri, Jan 23	56.1%	25.7%	model
89	UTAH beat SA 118–112	2019–20	Thu, Aug 13	58.5%	28.1%	model
90	MIN beat CHA 121–99	2019–20	Fri, Oct 25	40.4%	70.8%	market
91	MIN beat LAC 94–88	2025–26	Thu, Feb 26	45.2%	75.4%	market
92	LAL beat POR 116–108WEST 1ST ROUND - GAME 3	2019–20	Sat, Aug 22	44.5%	74.8%	market
93	PHI beat MIA 137–134	2020–21	Tue, Jan 12	47.5%	77.6%	market
94	LAC beat PHX 113–109	2021–22	Wed, Apr 6	42.4%	72.5%	market
95	OKC beat LAL 123–87	2025–26	Tue, Apr 7	63.5%	93.6%	market
96	IND beat MIN 130–107	2017–18	Tue, Oct 24	44.4%	14.5%	model
97	MIA beat ORL 105–93	2012–13	Wed, Apr 17	95.9%	66.0%	model
98	TOR beat GS 119–100	2021–22	Sat, Dec 18	45.1%	74.8%	market
99	SA beat UTAH 119–111	2019–20	Fri, Aug 7	48.3%	77.8%	market
100	DEN beat MIL 109–95	2019–20	Mon, Mar 9	41.0%	70.5%	market

Biggest comebacks

The largest deficit at a quarter break that a team came back from, over all 29,653 games in the archive — the only board here that owes nothing to the model.

How to read this board · every figure is a lower bound

Every figure here is a lower bound. The archive holds the score at each quarter break, not at every moment, so a team shown as 30 down at half-time was almost certainly further behind at some point during it. The real number lives in play-by-play; this one is derived entirely from scores the archive actually has, and understates rather than guesses.

#	Game	Season	Date	Down by	At the end of	OT
1	LAC beat WSH 116–115	2021–22	Tue, Jan 25	30	Q2	—
2	BOS beat SA 143–140	2020–21	Fri, Apr 30	29	Q2	OT
3	NY beat SA 107–106NBA Finals - Game 4	2025–26	Wed, Jun 10	27	Q2	—
4	PHX beat BOS 110–106	2003–04	Fri, Dec 5	26	Q2	—
5	ATL beat CLE 126–125	2016–17	Sun, Apr 9	26	Q3	OT
6	LAC beat SA 113–104	2024–25	Mon, Nov 4	26	Q1	—
7	OKC beat MEM 114–108West 1st Round - Game 3	2024–25	Thu, Apr 24	26	Q2	—
8	POR beat NO 92–91	2006–07	Fri, Nov 10	25	Q1	—
9	PHI beat IND 94–92	2008–09	Fri, Nov 14	25	Q1	—
10	CLE beat IND 119–114EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND - GAME 3	2016–17	Thu, Apr 20	25	Q2	—
11	BKN beat SAC 123–121	2018–19	Tue, Mar 19	25	Q3	—
12	POR beat SAC 136–131	2018–19	Wed, Apr 10	25	Q2	—
13	LAL beat POR 121–112	2022–23	Sun, Jan 22	25	Q2	—
14	SAC beat CHI 102–98	2009–10	Mon, Dec 21	24	Q2	—
15	BOS beat MIA 98–88	2015–16	Wed, Apr 13	24	Q2	—
16	BOS beat HOU 99–98	2017–18	Thu, Dec 28	24	Q2	—
17	IND beat CHI 117–113	2022–23	Wed, Feb 15	24	Q1	—
18	MIL beat DAL 129–117	2023–24	Sat, Feb 3	24	Q1	—
19	PHI beat MIA 104–102	2017–18	Wed, Feb 14	23	Q2	—
20	LAC beat BOS 123–112	2018–19	Sat, Feb 9	23	Q1	—
21	LAC beat GS 135–131WEST 1ST ROUND - GAME 2	2018–19	Mon, Apr 15	23	Q2	—
22	TOR beat DAL 110–107	2019–20	Sun, Dec 22	23	Q3	—
23	MEM beat SA 126–120	2022–23	Fri, Mar 17	23	Q2	OT
24	NY beat MIL 103–100	2003–04	Sun, Mar 14	22	Q2	—
25	DAL beat MIN 107–100	2008–09	Tue, Dec 30	22	Q2	—
26	SA beat LAC 96–86WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - GAME 3	2011–12	Sat, May 19	22	Q1	—
27	MEM beat SAC 111–110	2014–15	Thu, Nov 13	22	Q1	—
28	SA beat SAC 114–104	2016–17	Wed, Mar 8	22	Q1	—
29	GS beat PHI 124–116	2017–18	Sat, Nov 18	22	Q2	—
30	IND beat CLE 97–95	2017–18	Fri, Jan 12	22	Q1	—
31	OKC beat HOU 117–112	2018–19	Sat, Feb 9	22	Q2	—
32	ATL beat PHI 109–106East Semifinals - Game 5	2020–21	Wed, Jun 16	22	Q2	—
33	LAC beat UTAH 131–119West Semifinals - Game 6	2020–21	Fri, Jun 18	22	Q2	—
34	OKC beat LAL 123–115	2021–22	Wed, Oct 27	22	Q1	—
35	BKN beat BOS 115–105	2022–23	Fri, Mar 3	22	Q1	—
36	SA beat ATL 126–118	2022–23	Sun, Mar 19	22	Q2	—
37	CHI beat MIN 129–123	2023–24	Tue, Feb 6	22	Q2	OT
38	ATL beat BOS 120–118	2023–24	Mon, Mar 25	22	Q1	—
39	ORL beat MIA 121–114	2024–25	Sat, Dec 21	22	Q3	—
40	MIN beat OKC 131–128	2024–25	Mon, Feb 24	22	Q3	OT
41	NO beat HOU 133–128	2025–26	Thu, Dec 18	22	Q2	OT
42	DET beat ORL 93–79East 1st Round - Game 6	2025–26	Fri, May 1	22	Q2	—
43	MEM beat CLE 122–115	2003–04	Sat, Nov 29	21	Q1	2OT
44	CLE beat NO 104–100	2003–04	Mon, Feb 23	21	Q1	—
45	CHI beat CHA 109–105	2005–06	Wed, Nov 2	21	Q3	OT
46	UTAH beat ATL 112–106	2006–07	Wed, Dec 20	21	Q3	—
47	BOS beat LAL 97–91NBA FINALS - GAME 4	2007–08	Thu, Jun 12	21	Q1	—
48	SAC beat MIL 103–100	2011–12	Thu, Jan 5	21	Q2	—
49	BOS beat ORL 91–83	2011–12	Thu, Jan 26	21	Q2	—
50	LAC beat MEM 99–98WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND - GAME 1	2011–12	Sun, Apr 29	21	Q3	—
51	PHX beat CLE 107–105	2012–13	Fri, Nov 9	21	Q1	—
52	MIA beat CLE 98–95	2012–13	Wed, Mar 20	21	Q2	—
53	CHA beat SA 91–88	2015–16	Mon, Mar 21	21	Q1	—
54	WSH beat POR 125–124	2016–17	Sat, Mar 11	21	Q2	OT
55	WSH beat NY 118–113	2017–18	Wed, Feb 14	21	Q2	—
56	OKC beat CHI 109–106	2019–20	Mon, Dec 16	21	Q1	—
57	BKN beat PHX 128–124	2020–21	Tue, Feb 16	21	Q2	—
58	BKN beat NY 111–106	2021–22	Wed, Feb 16	21	Q2	—
59	LAC beat CLE 120–118	2023–24	Sun, Apr 7	21	Q2	—
60	HOU beat PHI 144–137	2024–25	Mon, Mar 17	21	Q2	OT
61	BOS beat MIA 98–96	2025–26	Fri, Feb 6	21	Q2	—
62	LAC beat IND 114–113	2025–26	Fri, Mar 27	21	Q1	—
63	LAC beat DAL 100–99	2003–04	Wed, Dec 10	20	Q1	—
64	LAC beat DEN 111–109	2005–06	Tue, Apr 4	20	Q2	—
65	OKC beat UTAH 106–103	2006–07	Sat, Apr 7	20	Q3	—
66	MIN beat IND 131–118	2007–08	Fri, Dec 21	20	Q1	—
67	PHX beat OKC 104–96	2007–08	Thu, Jan 3	20	Q1	—
68	SAC beat MIA 120–109	2007–08	Sun, Mar 2	20	Q2	—
69	UTAH beat BKN 103–92	2008–09	Wed, Dec 17	20	Q1	—
70	BKN beat ATL 93–91	2008–09	Fri, Jan 2	20	Q2	OT
71	IND beat WSH 85–83	2011–12	Thu, Mar 22	20	Q2	—
72	IND beat CLE 99–94	2012–13	Tue, Apr 9	20	Q3	—
73	GS beat NO 123–119WESTERN CONFERENCE 1st ROUND - GAME 3	2014–15	Thu, Apr 23	20	Q3	OT
74	LAC beat OKC 103–98	2015–16	Wed, Mar 2	20	Q2	—
75	ATL beat MIL 114–110	2016–17	Fri, Dec 9	20	Q2	—
76	GS beat SA 113–111WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS - GAME 1	2016–17	Sun, May 14	20	Q2	—
77	GS beat NO 125–115	2017–18	Mon, Dec 4	20	Q2	—
78	ATL beat DAL 111–104	2018–19	Wed, Oct 24	20	Q1	—
79	BOS beat PHX 116–109	2018–19	Thu, Nov 8	20	Q2	OT
80	MIL beat MIA 113–98	2018–19	Fri, Mar 15	20	Q2	—
81	NO beat LAL 116–108	2021–22	Sun, Mar 27	20	Q2	—
82	NO beat UTAH 123–119	2024–25	Mon, Jan 20	20	Q2	OT
83	IND beat LAC 119–112	2024–25	Thu, Feb 6	20	Q1	—
84	GS beat BKN 121–119	2024–25	Thu, Mar 6	20	Q1	—
85	MIL beat MIN 110–103	2024–25	Tue, Apr 8	20	Q3	—
86	SA beat TOR 125–118	2024–25	Sun, Apr 13	20	Q2	—
87	POR beat OKC 121–119	2025–26	Wed, Nov 5	20	Q1	—
88	SA beat LAC 116–112	2025–26	Fri, Mar 6	20	Q2	—
89	OKC beat POR 119–108	2003–04	Mon, Jan 5	19	Q2	OT
90	ATL beat ORL 95–87	2003–04	Fri, Apr 2	19	Q2	—
91	CLE beat PHX 114–109	2004–05	Wed, Nov 10	19	Q3	OT
92	TOR beat SA 96–91	2004–05	Sun, Nov 21	19	Q3	—
93	DAL beat CLE 91–87	2005–06	Tue, Mar 14	19	Q2	—
94	LAL beat HOU 112–101	2006–07	Fri, Dec 15	19	Q1	2OT
95	OKC beat MIN 114–106	2006–07	Tue, Mar 27	19	Q2	—
96	PHX beat DEN 132–117	2007–08	Mon, Mar 31	19	Q2	—
97	NO beat MEM 109–102	2009–10	Sat, Jan 30	19	Q2	OT
98	WSH beat ORL 92–91	2009–10	Fri, Feb 5	19	Q1	—
99	CHI beat DET 101–91	2010–11	Sat, Oct 30	19	Q2	—
100	UTAH beat MIA 116–114	2010–11	Tue, Nov 9	19	Q2	OT

Biggest margin misses

Where the expected margin was furthest from the real one — a blowout called as a coin flip is a different error from a close game going the wrong way.

#	Game	Season	Date	Expected	Actual	Off by
1	MEM beat OKC 152–79	2021–22	Thu, Dec 2	+9.0	+73	64.0
2	DEN beat NO 121–63WESTERN CONFERENCE 1st ROUND - GAME 4	2008–09	Mon, Apr 27	+0.8	-58	58.8
3	DAL beat LAC 124–73	2020–21	Sun, Dec 27	+6.4	-51	57.4
4	DEN beat POR 157–103	2025–26	Fri, Feb 20	+3.0	-54	57.0
5	CHI beat MIL 120–66EASTERN CONFERENCE 1st ROUND - GAME 6	2014–15	Thu, Apr 30	+0.4	-54	54.4
6	DAL beat UTAH 118–68	2018–19	Wed, Nov 14	-3.4	+50	53.4
7	CHA beat UTAH 150–95	2025–26	Sat, Jan 10	-1.6	-55	53.4
8	CHA beat MEM 140–79	2017–18	Thu, Mar 22	+8.7	+61	52.3
9	IND beat OKC 152–95	2020–21	Sat, May 1	-5.4	-57	51.6
10	MIL beat MIA 144–97	2020–21	Tue, Dec 29	+4.1	-47	51.1
11	CLE beat MIA 138–83East 1st Round - Game 4	2024–25	Mon, Apr 28	-4.0	-55	51.0
12	TOR beat ORL 139–87	2025–26	Sun, Mar 29	+1.6	+52	50.4
13	TOR beat GS 130–77	2020–21	Fri, Apr 2	+2.7	+53	50.3
14	NY beat PHI 138–89	2025–26	Wed, Feb 11	+1.3	-49	50.3
15	NY beat ATL 140–89East 1st Round - Game 6	2025–26	Thu, Apr 30	-0.8	-51	50.2
16	LAC beat BKN 126–67	2024–25	Wed, Jan 15	+9.1	+59	49.9
17	BOS beat PHI 135–87	2021–22	Tue, Feb 15	+1.6	-48	49.6
18	DAL beat NY 128–78	2009–10	Sun, Jan 24	-0.5	-50	49.5
19	CHI beat MIA 108–66	2006–07	Tue, Oct 31	+7.2	-42	49.2
20	MIA beat POR 142–82	2023–24	Fri, Mar 29	+11.0	+60	49.0
21	NY beat DAL 128–94	2009–10	Sat, Mar 13	+14.7	-34	48.7
22	HOU beat PHI 124–74	2006–07	Sun, Mar 18	-1.4	-50	48.6
23	DAL beat GS 126–91	2018–19	Sat, Mar 23	+13.4	-35	48.4
24	OKC beat POR 139–77	2023–24	Thu, Jan 11	+14.1	+62	47.9
25	BKN beat MIL 127–82	2025–26	Sun, Dec 14	-2.9	+45	47.9
26	MEM beat GS 144–93	2024–25	Thu, Dec 19	+3.4	+51	47.6
27	MEM beat HOU 133–84	2020–21	Sun, Feb 28	-1.4	-49	47.6
28	CLE beat BOS 130–86EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS - GAME 2	2016–17	Fri, May 19	+3.4	-44	47.4
29	BOS beat CHI 133–77	2018–19	Sat, Dec 8	-8.6	-56	47.4
30	HOU beat UTAH 125–80	2012–13	Mon, Jan 28	+2.3	-45	47.3
31	NY beat BKN 120–66	2025–26	Wed, Jan 21	+6.9	+54	47.1
32	GS beat POR 157–101	2022–23	Sun, Apr 9	-9.0	-56	47.0
33	POR beat PHX 124–76	2017–18	Wed, Oct 18	-1.0	-48	47.0
34	OKC beat DAL 135–86	2023–24	Sun, Apr 14	+2.6	+49	46.4
35	UTAH beat MEM 147–101	2025–26	Fri, Apr 10	-0.3	+46	46.3
36	NO beat ATL 100–59	2010–11	Fri, Jan 21	+5.1	-41	46.1
37	HOU beat MEM 130–81	2015–16	Mon, Mar 14	+3.3	+49	45.7
38	DAL beat UTAH 147–97	2023–24	Wed, Dec 6	+4.4	+50	45.6
39	NO beat MIN 139–91	2014–15	Fri, Nov 14	+2.6	+48	45.4
40	UTAH beat POR 141–99	2024–25	Fri, Dec 6	+3.3	-42	45.3
41	DAL beat LAL 122–73	2016–17	Sun, Jan 22	+3.7	+49	45.3
42	POR beat CHA 141–88	2024–25	Sat, Feb 22	+8.0	+53	45.0
43	PHI beat CHA 135–82	2023–24	Sat, Dec 16	-8.1	-53	44.9
44	BKN beat DEN 114–70	2008–09	Sat, Feb 7	-0.8	+44	44.8
45	BOS beat NY 114–73	2013–14	Sun, Dec 8	+3.8	-41	44.8
46	BKN beat ORL 107–68	2012–13	Fri, Nov 9	+5.7	-39	44.7
47	SAC beat CHI 121–79	2012–13	Wed, Mar 13	-2.7	+42	44.7
48	UTAH beat ORL 125–85	2017–18	Sat, Nov 18	+4.7	-40	44.7
49	GS beat CHI 138–96	2021–22	Fri, Jan 14	+2.6	-42	44.6
50	PHX beat OKC 135–103	2025–26	Sun, Apr 12	+12.6	-32	44.6
51	BOS beat SAC 128–75	2021–22	Tue, Jan 25	+8.6	+53	44.4
52	POR beat SA 136–106	2012–13	Fri, Mar 8	+14.4	-30	44.4
53	UTAH beat MIA 136–100	2024–25	Sat, Jan 4	+8.4	-36	44.4
54	BOS beat MIL 140–99	2022–23	Thu, Mar 30	+3.3	-41	44.3
55	NY beat DET 125–81	2020–21	Sat, Apr 3	+0.2	-44	44.2
56	PHI beat DAL 116–74	2016–17	Fri, Mar 17	-2.2	+42	44.2
57	CHI beat BKN 131–87	2022–23	Fri, Feb 24	-0.1	+44	44.1
58	LAC beat MIL 153–119	2021–22	Fri, Apr 1	+9.9	-34	43.9
59	TOR beat SA 143–100	2022–23	Wed, Nov 2	+0.8	-43	43.8
60	SA beat HOU 114–75WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - GAME 6	2016–17	Thu, May 11	+4.7	-39	43.7
61	UTAH beat WSH 116–69	2017–18	Mon, Dec 4	+3.4	+47	43.6
62	IND beat WSH 162–109	2024–25	Thu, Mar 27	-9.5	-53	43.5
63	MIA beat MIL 137–95	2021–22	Thu, Oct 21	-1.4	+42	43.5
64	MEM beat POR 134–89	2024–25	Sun, Nov 10	-1.6	-45	43.4
65	BOS beat IND 155–104	2023–24	Wed, Nov 1	+7.7	+51	43.3
66	BKN beat WSH 128–86	2022–23	Fri, Nov 4	+1.0	-42	43.0
67	NY beat PHI 128–92	2023–24	Fri, Jan 5	+6.9	-36	42.9
68	MIN beat MEM 138–95	2021–22	Sat, Nov 20	+0.2	+43	42.8
69	WSH beat DET 124–81	2015–16	Mon, Mar 14	+0.5	+43	42.5
70	BOS beat GS 140–88	2023–24	Sun, Mar 3	+9.5	+52	42.5
71	LAL beat NO 133–89NBA In-Season Tournament - Semifinals	2023–24	Thu, Dec 7	+1.6	+44	42.5
72	ATL beat SAC 126–80	2017–18	Wed, Nov 15	+3.6	+46	42.4
73	UTAH beat SAC 154–105	2020–21	Wed, Apr 28	-6.6	-49	42.4
74	NO beat GS 128–83	2022–23	Mon, Nov 21	+2.6	+45	42.4
75	DAL beat POR 132–92	2020–21	Sun, Mar 21	+2.2	-40	42.2
76	DAL beat CHA 122–84	2018–19	Wed, Jan 2	+4.1	-38	42.1
77	DAL beat GS 142–94	2019–20	Wed, Nov 20	+5.9	+48	42.1
78	POR beat SA 137–97	2011–12	Tue, Feb 21	-2.1	+40	42.1
79	OKC beat LAC 126–85	2008–09	Wed, Apr 15	+1.0	-41	42.0
80	PHI beat HOU 134–96	2019–20	Fri, Aug 14	+4.0	-38	42.0
81	LAL beat CLE 112–57	2010–11	Tue, Jan 11	+13.1	+55	41.9
82	LAC beat OKC 138–88	2021–22	Sun, Apr 10	+8.2	+50	41.9
83	MIN beat OKC 143–101West Finals - Game 3	2024–25	Sat, May 24	+0.2	+42	41.8
84	NY beat BOS 105–75	2020–21	Sun, Jan 17	+11.7	-30	41.7
85	MIN beat DEN 115–70West Semifinals - Game 6	2023–24	Thu, May 16	+3.3	+45	41.7
86	DAL beat PHI 123–70	2014–15	Thu, Nov 13	+11.4	+53	41.6
87	MIA beat NO 153–104	2024–25	Fri, Apr 11	-7.5	-49	41.5
88	TOR beat BKN 106–69	2007–08	Fri, Nov 2	+4.4	-37	41.4
89	LAC beat ATL 150–101	2019–20	Sat, Nov 16	+7.7	+49	41.3
90	POR beat OKC 133–85	2020–21	Sat, Apr 3	+7.1	+48	40.9
91	BOS beat CLE 120–88EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS - GAME 5	2009–10	Tue, May 11	+8.8	-32	40.8
92	BOS beat CLE 117–78	2014–15	Sun, Apr 12	-1.7	+39	40.7
93	BOS beat GS 128–95	2018–19	Tue, Mar 5	+7.7	-33	40.7
94	NY beat POR 121–79	2011–12	Wed, Mar 14	+1.5	+42	40.5
95	GS beat MEM 119–69	2015–16	Mon, Nov 2	+9.5	+50	40.5
96	CLE beat WSH 127–89	2014–15	Fri, Feb 20	+2.4	-38	40.4
97	SA beat PHX 129–81	2017–18	Wed, Feb 7	-7.6	-48	40.4
98	WSH beat MIA 104–70	2011–12	Thu, Apr 26	-6.3	+34	40.3
99	MIL beat ATL 107–77	2014–15	Fri, Dec 26	+10.3	-30	40.3
100	HOU beat ORL 132–90	2020–21	Fri, Jan 8	+1.7	+42	40.3

built Oct 14, 2026, 3:44 PM UTC · seasons 2004–2026, the first 3 excluded as the model’s warm-up