2023-24 season

1,319 games · Boston Celtics won the title

Games scored

1,319

Model Brier

0.2113

Market Brier

no line

Gap to close

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Eastern Conference

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Away	Net
1	Boston Celtics	64	18	.780	37–4	27–14	+11.3
2	New York Knicks	50	32	.610	27–14	23–18	+4.6
3	Milwaukee Bucks	49	33	.598	31–11	18–22	+2.6
4	Cleveland Cavaliers	48	34	.585	26–15	22–19	+2.4
5	Philadelphia 76ers	47	35	.573	25–16	22–19	+3.0
6	Orlando Magic	47	35	.573	29–12	18–23	+2.0
7	Indiana Pacers	47	36	.566	26–15	21–21	+2.8
8	Miami Heat	46	36	.561	22–19	24–17	+1.8
9	Chicago Bulls	39	43	.476	20–21	19–22	-1.4
10	Atlanta Hawks	36	46	.439	21–20	15–26	-2.2
11	Brooklyn Nets	32	50	.390	20–21	12–29	-2.9
12	Toronto Raptors	25	57	.305	14–27	11–30	-6.4
13	Charlotte Hornets	21	61	.256	11–30	10–31	-10.2
14	Washington Wizards	15	67	.183	7–34	8–33	-9.3
15	Detroit Pistons	14	68	.171	7–33	7–35	-9.1

Western Conference

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Away	Net
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	57	25	.695	33–8	24–17	+7.4
2	Denver Nuggets	57	25	.695	33–8	24–17	+5.3
3	Minnesota Timberwolves	56	26	.683	30–11	26–15	+6.5
4	LA Clippers	51	31	.622	25–16	26–15	+3.3
5	Dallas Mavericks	50	32	.610	25–16	25–16	+2.2
6	New Orleans Pelicans	49	33	.598	21–19	28–14	+4.4
7	Phoenix Suns	49	33	.598	25–16	24–17	+3.1
8	Los Angeles Lakers	48	35	.578	29–14	19–21	+0.8
9	Golden State Warriors	46	36	.561	21–20	25–16	+2.6
10	Sacramento Kings	46	36	.561	24–17	22–19	+1.7
11	Houston Rockets	41	41	.500	27–14	14–27	+1.1
12	Utah Jazz	31	51	.378	21–20	10–31	-4.9
13	Memphis Grizzlies	27	55	.329	9–32	18–23	-7.0
14	San Antonio Spurs	22	60	.268	12–29	10–31	-6.5
15	Portland Trail Blazers	21	61	.256	11–30	10–31	-9.0

How the title race moved

Backtest

Eastern Conference

Boston CelticsNew York KnicksIndiana Pacersfield (12)

A reconstruction. Each checkpoint re-simulated the rest of the season from ratings built on games strictly earlier than that date, so the model never saw the future — but nobody read these numbers on those days. Boston Celtics went on to win the title. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	Games	BOS	NY	IND	Field
2023-10-24	0	32.4%	10.2%	0.0%	57.5%
2023-11-03	68	38.2%	10.3%	0.4%	51.2%
2023-11-13	136	35.4%	10.0%	1.3%	53.3%
2023-11-23	206	36.8%	9.7%	1.1%	52.5%
2023-12-03	281	36.1%	12.4%	0.5%	51.0%
2023-12-13	335	34.1%	8.1%	2.3%	55.5%
2023-12-23	412	41.8%	8.3%	0.2%	49.8%
2024-01-02	482	50.9%	3.0%	0.7%	45.4%
2024-01-12	558	57.0%	13.6%	4.2%	25.2%
2024-01-22	631	45.1%	13.8%	2.4%	38.7%
2024-02-01	702	43.8%	25.0%	2.3%	28.9%
2024-02-11	779	42.4%	15.1%	1.6%	40.9%
2024-02-21	821	49.9%	7.7%	1.7%	40.8%
2024-03-02	886	59.5%	3.4%	2.3%	35.0%
2024-03-12	964	68.9%	3.8%	3.0%	24.4%
2024-03-22	1,035	70.2%	5.4%	3.4%	21.0%
2024-04-01	1,115	70.9%	6.3%	4.4%	18.4%
2024-04-11	1,192	68.0%	9.3%	7.7%	15.0%
2024-04-14	1,216	63.1%	14.1%	6.7%	16.1%

Western Conference

Minnesota TimberwolvesDenver NuggetsDallas Mavericksfield (12)

A reconstruction. Each checkpoint re-simulated the rest of the season from ratings built on games strictly earlier than that date, so the model never saw the future — but nobody read these numbers on those days. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	Games	MIN	DEN	DAL	Field
2023-10-24	0	2.3%	47.2%	0.1%	50.5%
2023-11-03	68	6.8%	33.1%	3.6%	56.6%
2023-11-13	136	15.4%	45.0%	6.5%	33.1%
2023-11-23	206	17.7%	31.1%	2.9%	48.3%
2023-12-03	281	23.3%	27.9%	1.3%	47.6%
2023-12-13	335	22.5%	16.8%	3.5%	57.3%
2023-12-23	412	23.7%	21.9%	1.1%	53.3%
2024-01-02	482	19.6%	20.9%	1.4%	58.1%
2024-01-12	558	17.9%	14.2%	0.4%	67.5%
2024-01-22	631	18.7%	19.4%	0.5%	61.3%
2024-02-01	702	17.3%	17.3%	0.1%	65.3%
2024-02-11	779	22.3%	11.5%	2.6%	63.7%
2024-02-21	821	32.0%	6.8%	2.5%	58.7%
2024-03-02	886	30.0%	16.6%	3.0%	50.5%
2024-03-12	964	19.1%	19.3%	1.6%	59.9%
2024-03-22	1,035	25.6%	23.9%	3.8%	46.7%
2024-04-01	1,115	24.7%	19.8%	14.6%	40.8%
2024-04-11	1,192	25.4%	22.1%	20.8%	31.8%
2024-04-14	1,216	24.4%	23.6%	12.7%	39.3%

Playoff bracket · 2023-24

Champion · Boston Celtics

Every card opens the series: which games, by how much, where, and what the model made of each one. Card positions and connectors are computed arithmetic, not nested boxes — the card feeding a round sits exactly halfway between the two beneath it, and that is asserted by a test rather than left to the box model.

The model's five biggest misses

Apr 12DET 107 @ DAL 89gave the winner 7.4%Jan 28OKC 104 @ DET 120gave the winner 10.1%Jan 22CHA 128 @ MIN 125gave the winner 11.3%May 9CLE 118 @ BOS 94gave the winner 11.7%Mar 10WSH 110 @ MIA 108gave the winner 16.1%

These are the honest low points, printed with the same prominence the hits get. A record that only shows its wins is an advertisement.

Results

Browse all 1,319 games

Jun 17DAL 88 @ BOS 106NBA Finals - Game 5Playoffs Jun 14BOS 84 @ DAL 122NBA Finals - Game 4Playoffs Jun 12BOS 106 @ DAL 99NBA Finals - Game 3Playoffs Jun 9DAL 98 @ BOS 105NBA Finals - Game 2Playoffs Jun 6DAL 89 @ BOS 107NBA Finals - Game 1Playoffs May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103West Finals - Game 5Playoffs May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100West Finals - Game 4Playoffs May 27BOS 105 @ IND 102East Finals - Game 4Playoffs