Conference Semifinals · 2023-24
6 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 7
DAL 95@
OKC 11723·30·26·16 / 23·39·27·2876%Game 2May 9DAL 119@OKC 11036·32·31·20 / 32·30·27·2123%Game 3May 11OKC 101@DAL 10523·29·26·23 / 26·25·31·2350%Game 4May 13OKC 100@DAL 9620·23·22·35 / 30·24·15·2748%Game 5May 15DAL 104@OKC 9224·30·25·25 / 22·22·23·2528%Game 6May 18OKC 116@DAL 11730·34·26·26 / 23·25·35·3458%
DAL 95@OKC 11723·30·26·16 / 23·39·27·2876%Game 2May 9DAL 119@OKC 11036·32·31·20 / 32·30·27·2123%Game 3May 11OKC 101@DAL 10523·29·26·23 / 26·25·31·2350%Game 4May 13OKC 100@DAL 9620·23·22·35 / 30·24·15·2748%Game 5May 15DAL 104@OKC 9224·30·25·25 / 22·22·23·2528%Game 6May 18OKC 116@DAL 11730·34·26·26 / 23·25·35·3458%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
47.1%
Brier over the series
0.3117
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.