2024-25 season

1,321 games · Oklahoma City Thunder won the title

Games scored

1,321

Model Brier

0.2107

Market Brier

no line

Gap to close

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Eastern Conference

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Away	Net
1	Cleveland Cavaliers	64	18	.780	34–7	30–11	+9.5
2	Boston Celtics	61	21	.744	28–13	33–8	+9.1
3	New York Knicks	51	31	.622	27–14	24–17	+4.1
4	Indiana Pacers	50	32	.610	29–12	21–20	+2.2
5	Milwaukee Bucks	48	34	.585	28–14	20–20	+2.5
6	Detroit Pistons	44	38	.537	22–19	22–19	+1.9
7	Orlando Magic	41	41	.500	22–19	19–22	-0.1
8	Atlanta Hawks	40	42	.488	21–19	19–23	-1.1
9	Chicago Bulls	39	43	.476	18–23	21–20	-1.6
10	Miami Heat	37	45	.451	19–22	18–23	+0.6
11	Toronto Raptors	30	52	.366	18–23	12–29	-4.3
12	Brooklyn Nets	26	56	.317	12–29	14–27	-7.1
13	Philadelphia 76ers	24	58	.293	12–29	12–29	-6.2
14	Charlotte Hornets	19	63	.232	12–29	7–34	-9.1
15	Washington Wizards	18	64	.220	8–33	10–31	-12.4

Western Conference

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Away	Net
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	68	14	.829	36–6	32–8	+12.9
2	Houston Rockets	52	30	.634	29–12	23–18	+4.5
3	LA Clippers	50	32	.610	30–11	20–21	+4.7
4	Denver Nuggets	50	32	.610	26–15	24–17	+3.9
5	Los Angeles Lakers	50	32	.610	31–10	19–22	+1.2
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	49	33	.598	25–16	24–17	+5.0
7	Memphis Grizzlies	48	34	.585	26–15	22–19	+4.8
8	Golden State Warriors	48	34	.585	24–17	24–17	+3.3
9	Sacramento Kings	40	42	.488	20–21	20–21	+0.5
10	Dallas Mavericks	39	43	.476	22–18	17–25	-1.2
11	Portland Trail Blazers	36	46	.439	22–19	14–27	-3.0
12	Phoenix Suns	36	46	.439	24–17	12–29	-3.0
13	San Antonio Spurs	34	48	.415	20–21	14–27	-2.8
14	New Orleans Pelicans	21	61	.256	14–27	7–34	-9.4
15	Utah Jazz	17	65	.207	10–31	7–34	-9.3

How the title race moved

Backtest

Eastern Conference

Cleveland CavaliersBoston CelticsMilwaukee Bucksfield (12)

A reconstruction. Each checkpoint re-simulated the rest of the season from ratings built on games strictly earlier than that date, so the model never saw the future — but nobody read these numbers on those days. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	Games	CLE	BOS	MIL	Field
2024-10-22	0	1.9%	67.4%	2.0%	28.7%
2024-11-01	67	13.9%	49.2%	2.6%	34.3%
2024-11-11	144	23.3%	52.5%	0.7%	23.5%
2024-11-21	217	26.8%	48.7%	1.1%	23.4%
2024-12-01	289	14.9%	56.9%	1.8%	26.3%
2024-12-11	359	19.0%	51.6%	2.1%	27.3%
2024-12-21	402	22.4%	43.2%	5.4%	28.9%
2024-12-31	471	31.5%	30.7%	3.4%	34.5%
2025-01-10	546	42.9%	35.6%	3.0%	18.5%
2025-01-20	619	43.8%	24.4%	6.8%	25.1%
2025-01-30	688	39.3%	25.3%	5.9%	29.5%
2025-02-09	768	45.8%	25.5%	1.8%	27.0%
2025-02-19	814	48.7%	32.1%	1.6%	17.6%
2025-03-01	877	56.9%	26.2%	1.9%	15.0%
2025-03-11	961	61.8%	27.3%	2.5%	8.5%
2025-03-21	1,039	49.1%	37.0%	2.6%	11.2%
2025-03-31	1,116	35.3%	48.5%	2.1%	14.1%
2025-04-10	1,189	41.9%	33.2%	4.0%	20.9%
2025-04-13	1,215	42.9%	34.1%	5.8%	17.2%

Western Conference

Oklahoma City ThunderLA ClippersMinnesota Timberwolvesfield (12)

A reconstruction. Each checkpoint re-simulated the rest of the season from ratings built on games strictly earlier than that date, so the model never saw the future — but nobody read these numbers on those days. Oklahoma City Thunder went on to win the title. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	Games	OKC	LAC	MIN	Field
2024-10-22	0	19.9%	0.3%	19.4%	60.5%
2024-11-01	67	27.6%	1.5%	11.2%	59.7%
2024-11-11	144	33.5%	2.3%	12.9%	51.3%
2024-11-21	217	28.1%	1.6%	6.7%	63.6%
2024-12-01	289	38.5%	4.3%	1.8%	55.4%
2024-12-11	359	38.1%	1.5%	7.6%	52.8%
2024-12-21	402	41.1%	4.3%	5.9%	48.7%
2024-12-31	471	48.8%	5.3%	4.3%	41.5%
2025-01-10	546	56.5%	2.2%	3.1%	38.2%
2025-01-20	619	54.4%	2.7%	3.6%	39.3%
2025-01-30	688	55.2%	1.8%	5.9%	37.1%
2025-02-09	768	56.9%	0.9%	7.6%	34.6%
2025-02-19	814	55.1%	2.0%	7.1%	35.8%
2025-03-01	877	57.1%	0.9%	7.5%	34.5%
2025-03-11	961	65.5%	1.1%	8.2%	25.2%
2025-03-21	1,039	63.4%	3.3%	7.5%	25.8%
2025-03-31	1,116	71.2%	4.4%	8.6%	15.9%
2025-04-10	1,189	50.6%	9.6%	9.7%	30.2%
2025-04-13	1,215	52.7%	11.6%	10.6%	25.1%

Playoff bracket · 2024-25

Champion · Oklahoma City Thunder

Every card opens the series: which games, by how much, where, and what the model made of each one. Card positions and connectors are computed arithmetic, not nested boxes — the card feeding a round sits exactly halfway between the two beneath it, and that is asserted by a test rather than left to the box model.

The model's five biggest misses

Feb 1WSH 105 @ MIN 103gave the winner 7.5%Mar 16ORL 108 @ CLE 103gave the winner 10.5%Mar 19NO 119 @ MIN 115gave the winner 12.5%Apr 13WSH 119 @ MIA 118gave the winner 12.9%Mar 13WSH 129 @ DET 125gave the winner 13.4%

These are the honest low points, printed with the same prominence the hits get. A record that only shows its wins is an advertisement.

Results

Browse all 1,321 games

Jun 22IND 91 @ OKC 103NBA Finals - Game 7Playoffs Jun 19OKC 91 @ IND 108NBA Finals - Game 6Playoffs Jun 16IND 109 @ OKC 120NBA Finals - Game 5Playoffs Jun 13OKC 111 @ IND 104NBA Finals - Game 4Playoffs Jun 11OKC 107 @ IND 116NBA Finals - Game 3Playoffs Jun 8IND 107 @ OKC 123NBA Finals - Game 2Playoffs Jun 5IND 111 @ OKC 110NBA Finals - Game 1Playoffs May 31NY 108 @ IND 125East Finals - Game 6Playoffs