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Hardwood
2024-25 season

First Round · 2024-25

New York Knicks
New York Knicks

4

final
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons

2

6 games · New York Knicks advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 19Detroit PistonsDET 112@New York KnicksNY 12327·28·36·21 / 27·30·26·4062%Game 2Apr 21Detroit PistonsDET 100@New York KnicksNY 9425·30·20·25 / 18·31·18·2735%Game 3Apr 24New York KnicksNY 118@Detroit PistonsDET 11633·33·27·25 / 27·26·30·3343%Game 4Apr 27New York KnicksNY 94@Detroit PistonsDET 9329·21·14·30 / 19·24·28·2243%Game 5Apr 29Detroit PistonsDET 106@New York KnicksNY 10322·27·28·29 / 23·27·24·2936%Game 6May 1New York KnicksNY 116@Detroit PistonsDET 11337·22·37·20 / 23·38·24·2842%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

1 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

43.6%

Brier over the series

0.3262

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works