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Hardwood
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2011-12 season

1,074 games · Miami Heat won the title

Games scored

1,074

Model Brier

0.2075

Market Brier

no line

Gap to close

Eastern Conference

#TeamWLPCTHomeAwayNet
1Chicago BullsChicago Bulls5016.758267249+8.2
2Miami HeatMiami Heat4620.6972851815+6.0
3Indiana PacersIndiana Pacers4224.63623101914+3.3
4Atlanta HawksAtlanta Hawks4026.60623101716+3.4
5Boston CelticsBoston Celtics3927.5912491518+2.5
6Orlando MagicOrlando Magic3729.56121121617+0.8
7New York KnicksNew York Knicks3630.54522111419+3.2
8Philadelphia 76ersPhiladelphia 76ers3531.53019141617+4.2
9Milwaukee BucksMilwaukee Bucks3135.47017161419+0.3
10Detroit PistonsDetroit Pistons2541.3791815726-4.8
11Toronto RaptorsToronto Raptors2343.34813201023-3.3
12Brooklyn NetsBrooklyn Nets2244.3339241320-6.0
13Cleveland CavaliersCleveland Cavaliers2145.31811221023-7.2
14Washington WizardsWashington Wizards2046.3031122924-4.8
15Charlotte HornetsCharlotte Hornets759.106429330-13.9

Western Conference

#TeamWLPCTHomeAwayNet
1San Antonio SpursSan Antonio Spurs5016.7582852211+7.2
2Oklahoma City ThunderOklahoma City Thunder4719.7122672112+6.1
3Memphis GrizzliesMemphis Grizzlies4125.6212671518+2.0
4Los Angeles LakersLos Angeles Lakers4125.6212671518+1.4
5LA ClippersLA Clippers4026.6062491617+2.6
6Denver NuggetsDenver Nuggets3828.57620131815+2.9
7Dallas MavericksDallas Mavericks3630.54523101320+0.9
8Utah JazzUtah Jazz3630.5452581122+0.6
9Houston RocketsHouston Rockets3432.51522111221+0.2
10Phoenix SunsPhoenix Suns3333.50019141419-0.2
11Portland Trail BlazersPortland Trail Blazers2838.4242013825-0.6
12Minnesota TimberwolvesMinnesota Timberwolves2640.39413201320-2.2
13Golden State WarriorsGolden State Warriors2343.34812211122-3.4
14Sacramento KingsSacramento Kings2244.3331617627-5.7
15New Orleans PelicansNew Orleans Pelicans2145.31811221023-3.8

Playoff bracket · 2011-12

Champion · Miami Heat

Every card opens the series: which games, by how much, where, and what the model made of each one. Card positions and connectors are computed arithmetic, not nested boxes — the card feeding a round sits exactly halfway between the two beneath it, and that is asserted by a test rather than left to the box model.

The model's five biggest misses

These are the honest low points, printed with the same prominence the hits get. A record that only shows its wins is an advertisement.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works