Conference Semifinals · 2011-12
5 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1May 14
LAL 90@
OKC 11923·21·24·22 / 30·29·39·2180%Game 2May 16LAL 75@OKC 7722·23·18·12 / 21·27·12·1780%Game 3May 18OKC 96@LAL 9915·32·23·26 / 23·27·19·3046%Game 4May 19OKC 103@LAL 10024·22·25·32 / 29·27·24·2048%Game 5May 21LAL 90@OKC 10621·30·26·13 / 26·28·29·2379%
LAL 90@OKC 11923·21·24·22 / 30·29·39·2180%Game 2May 16LAL 75@OKC 7722·23·18·12 / 21·27·12·1780%Game 3May 18OKC 96@LAL 9915·32·23·26 / 23·27·19·3046%Game 4May 19OKC 103@LAL 10024·22·25·32 / 29·27·24·2048%Game 5May 21LAL 90@OKC 10621·30·26·13 / 26·28·29·2379%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
66.6%
Brier over the series
0.1374
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.