2025-26 season

1,322 games · New York Knicks won the title

Games scored

1,322

Model Brier

0.2069

Market Brier

0.1991

Gap to close

+0.0100

Eastern Conference

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Away	Net
1	Detroit Pistons	60	22	.732	32–9	28–13	+8.2
2	Boston Celtics	56	26	.683	30–11	26–15	+7.7
3	New York Knicks	53	29	.646	30–10	23–19	+6.3
4	Cleveland Cavaliers	52	30	.634	27–14	25–16	+4.1
5	Toronto Raptors	46	36	.561	24–17	22–19	+2.8
6	Atlanta Hawks	46	36	.561	24–17	22–19	+2.4
7	Orlando Magic	45	37	.549	26–16	19–21	+0.6
8	Philadelphia 76ers	45	37	.549	23–18	22–19	-0.2
9	Charlotte Hornets	44	38	.537	21–20	23–18	+4.8
10	Miami Heat	43	39	.524	26–15	17–24	+2.3
11	Milwaukee Bucks	32	50	.390	19–22	13–28	-6.2
12	Chicago Bulls	31	51	.378	18–23	13–28	-5.2
13	Brooklyn Nets	20	62	.244	12–29	8–33	-10.0
14	Indiana Pacers	19	63	.232	11–30	8–33	-8.0
15	Washington Wizards	17	65	.207	11–30	6–35	-12.0

Western Conference

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Away	Net
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	64	18	.780	34–8	30–10	+11.2
2	San Antonio Spurs	62	20	.756	32–8	30–12	+8.3
3	Denver Nuggets	54	28	.658	28–13	26–15	+5.2
4	Los Angeles Lakers	53	29	.646	28–13	25–16	+1.8
5	Houston Rockets	52	30	.634	30–11	22–19	+5.2
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	49	33	.598	26–15	23–18	+3.4
7	Phoenix Suns	45	37	.549	25–16	20–21	+1.5
8	LA Clippers	42	40	.512	23–18	19–22	+1.1
9	Portland Trail Blazers	42	40	.512	24–17	18–23	-0.3
10	Golden State Warriors	37	45	.451	22–19	15–26	-0.6
11	New Orleans Pelicans	26	56	.317	17–24	9–32	-4.5
12	Dallas Mavericks	26	56	.317	16–25	10–31	-5.5
13	Memphis Grizzlies	25	57	.305	14–27	11–30	-6.0
14	Utah Jazz	22	60	.268	14–27	8–33	-8.4
15	Sacramento Kings	22	60	.268	15–26	7–34	-10.0

How the title race moved

Backtest

Eastern Conference

Boston CelticsDetroit PistonsNew York Knicksfield (12)

A reconstruction. Each checkpoint re-simulated the rest of the season from ratings built on games strictly earlier than that date, so the model never saw the future — but nobody read these numbers on those days. New York Knicks went on to win the title. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	Games	BOS	DET	NY	Field
2025-10-21	0	23.2%	2.0%	9.6%	65.2%
2025-10-31	69	21.6%	5.3%	10.8%	62.3%
2025-11-10	144	11.3%	13.2%	20.6%	54.9%
2025-11-20	213	14.1%	21.3%	13.8%	50.7%
2025-11-30	285	10.5%	20.4%	15.1%	54.1%
2025-12-10	358	22.0%	22.8%	23.3%	32.0%
2025-12-20	401	13.8%	27.2%	36.1%	22.9%
2025-12-30	472	21.6%	27.5%	32.6%	18.3%
2026-01-09	553	30.9%	36.0%	12.3%	20.8%
2026-01-19	627	34.1%	36.3%	7.4%	22.2%
2026-01-29	697	30.6%	34.2%	6.5%	28.7%
2026-02-08	777	30.1%	27.3%	10.2%	32.4%
2026-02-18	819	21.8%	30.1%	18.4%	29.7%
2026-02-28	885	23.0%	33.6%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-03-10	961	23.8%	19.7%	23.7%	32.9%
2026-03-20	1,038	23.1%	22.7%	22.9%	31.4%
2026-03-30	1,118	27.6%	28.6%	18.2%	25.5%
2026-04-09	1,190	31.1%	24.6%	15.7%	28.6%
2026-04-13	1,222	32.4%	30.1%	16.2%	21.4%

Western Conference

Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio SpursDenver Nuggetsfield (12)

A reconstruction. Each checkpoint re-simulated the rest of the season from ratings built on games strictly earlier than that date, so the model never saw the future — but nobody read these numbers on those days. Probabilities inside a conference sum to one, so the three named contenders and the field account for all 15 teams — nothing is dropped.

Table view

Date	Games	OKC	SA	DEN	Field
2025-10-21	0	51.9%	0.0%	6.0%	42.1%
2025-10-31	69	44.9%	1.5%	13.1%	40.5%
2025-11-10	144	51.0%	1.4%	17.6%	30.0%
2025-11-20	213	52.3%	1.5%	17.4%	28.7%
2025-11-30	285	57.4%	1.8%	12.1%	28.7%
2025-12-10	358	63.6%	1.4%	12.8%	22.2%
2025-12-20	401	63.2%	2.7%	16.2%	17.9%
2025-12-30	472	49.5%	10.0%	15.9%	24.6%
2026-01-09	553	40.8%	9.2%	11.2%	38.9%
2026-01-19	627	47.6%	10.3%	8.2%	33.8%
2026-01-29	697	49.1%	9.8%	5.1%	36.0%
2026-02-08	777	41.6%	18.8%	4.4%	35.2%
2026-02-18	819	34.8%	29.0%	5.8%	30.4%
2026-02-28	885	35.0%	35.9%	8.5%	20.7%
2026-03-10	961	38.1%	41.9%	3.1%	16.8%
2026-03-20	1,038	41.3%	41.4%	4.5%	12.8%
2026-03-30	1,118	38.0%	44.2%	5.3%	12.6%
2026-04-09	1,190	46.5%	40.5%	5.1%	7.9%
2026-04-13	1,222	42.4%	41.2%	9.0%	7.3%

Playoff bracket · 2025-26

Champion · New York Knicks

Every card opens the series: which games, by how much, where, and what the model made of each one. Card positions and connectors are computed arithmetic, not nested boxes — the card feeding a round sits exactly halfway between the two beneath it, and that is asserted by a test rather than left to the box model.

The model's five biggest misses

Mar 7BKN 107 @ DET 105gave the winner 9.7%Jan 23IND 117 @ OKC 114gave the winner 10.2%Feb 5WSH 126 @ DET 117gave the winner 11.8%Dec 27UTAH 127 @ SA 114gave the winner 14.0%Mar 15DAL 130 @ CLE 120gave the winner 14.5%

These are the honest low points, printed with the same prominence the hits get. A record that only shows its wins is an advertisement.

Results

Browse all 1,322 games

Jun 13NY 94 @ SA 90NBA Finals - Game 5Playoffs Jun 10SA 106 @ NY 107NBA Finals - Game 4Playoffs Jun 8SA 115 @ NY 111NBA Finals - Game 3Playoffs Jun 5NY 105 @ SA 104NBA Finals - Game 2Playoffs Jun 3NY 105 @ SA 95NBA Finals - Game 1Playoffs May 30SA 111 @ OKC 103West Finals - Game 7Playoffs May 28OKC 91 @ SA 118West Finals - Game 6Playoffs May 26SA 114 @ OKC 127West Finals - Game 5Playoffs