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Hardwood
2025-26 season

First Round · 2025-26

Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers

4

final
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

3

7 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 18Toronto RaptorsTOR 113@Cleveland CavaliersCLE 12631·23·22·37 / 35·26·36·2964%Game 2Apr 20Toronto RaptorsTOR 105@Cleveland CavaliersCLE 11519·29·29·28 / 26·28·30·3167%Game 3Apr 23Cleveland CavaliersCLE 104@Toronto RaptorsTOR 12625·29·27·23 / 31·23·29·4350%Game 4Apr 26Cleveland CavaliersCLE 89@Toronto RaptorsTOR 9317·19·22·31 / 14·24·22·3356%Game 5Apr 29Toronto RaptorsTOR 120@Cleveland CavaliersCLE 12534·40·29·17 / 38·29·33·2563%Game 6May 1Cleveland CavaliersCLE 110@Toronto RaptorsTOR 112OT32·19·30·23 / 32·29·31·1256%Game 7May 3Toronto RaptorsTOR 102@Cleveland CavaliersCLE 11426·23·19·34 / 24·25·38·2763%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

7 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

59.8%

Brier over the series

0.1643

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works