Preseason
2026-27, before it starts
20,000 simulated seasons from ratings regressed at the offseason boundary. First tip-off Tue, Oct 20.
The model does not know who is on any of these teams — it has never read a trade, a draft or an injury report. That is why these title odds run more concentrated than a real futures market’s, and why the gap narrows once games are played.
Who wins it
| Team | Projected | Playoffs | Conference | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 55.0–27.0 | 100% | 46.6% | 29.0% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 54.0–28.0 | 100% | 37.8% | 22.2% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 52.9–29.1 | 100% | 31.2% | 17.6% |
| Detroit Pistons | 47.7–34.3 | 95% | 12.6% | 5.3% |
| Boston Celtics | 47.3–34.7 | 93% | 11.3% | 4.6% |
| Denver Nuggets | 46.3–35.7 | 93% | 9.0% | 3.7% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 46.6–35.4 | 91% | 9.5% | 3.6% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 45.3–36.7 | 86% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
The full thirty, the seed distributions and the projected bracket are on the season page and the bracket.
Biggest projected swings
Against what each team actually won in 2025-26 — all regression to the mean and schedule, never an opinion about a signing.
| Team | Last season | Projected | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 19 | 31.3 | +12.3 |
| Detroit Pistons | 60 | 47.7 | -12.3 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 64 | 52.9 | -11.1 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 26 | 34.9 | +8.9 |
| Boston Celtics | 56 | 47.3 | -8.7 |
| Sacramento Kings | 22 | 30.6 | +8.6 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 53 | 44.5 | -8.5 |
| Washington Wizards | 17 | 25.1 | +8.1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 62 | 54.0 | -8.0 |
| Denver Nuggets | 54 | 46.3 | -7.7 |
Accountability
What it thought this time last year
The same projection, one season earlier, on the morning of the opener with no games played. Conference-title probability.
| Team | Conference | Conference title, opening day |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Western | 51.9% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Eastern | 33.0% |
| Indiana Pacers | Eastern | 26.3% |
| Boston Celtics | Eastern | 23.2% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Western | 22.6% |
New York Knicks went on to win it, from 9.6% — outside the top three on their own side of the bracket. Less a defect than a fact about the sport: eight teams a conference reach the postseason and the favourite is rarely above a third.
Backtest. Reconstructed from ratings that never saw the future — nobody read these numbers on that morning. Why a backtest is never a live record · the whole 2025-26 race