Season 2027 · 20,000 simulations
Playoff picture
The chance each team finishes at every conference seed — 1–6 qualify directly, 7–10 enter the play-in.
Eastern Conference
| Direct | Play-in | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Miss | Play-in | Playoffs |
1 New York Knicks | 74.3% | 15.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
2 Detroit Pistons | 7.5% | 22.4% | 18.9% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 15.4% | 94.6% |
3 Boston Celtics | 6.8% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 15.6% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 17.6% | 93.5% |
4 Charlotte Hornets | 5.0% | 16.0% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 22.0% | 91.0% |
5 Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.9% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 31.1% | 86.0% |
6 Orlando Magic | 1.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 47.4% | 74.3% |
7 Toronto Raptors | 0.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 52.5% | 69.1% |
8 Philadelphia 76ers | 0.6% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 8.1% | 56.6% | 63.3% |
9 Atlanta Hawks | 0.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 8.2% | 57.7% | 62.1% |
10 Miami Heat | 0.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 16.6% | 16.8% | 10.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% |
11 Milwaukee Bucks | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 8.3% | 86.0% | 13.5% | 3.1% | |
12 Chicago Bulls | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 87.3% | 12.3% | 2.9% | |
13 Indiana Pacers | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.7% | 88.5% | 11.1% | 2.6% | |
14 Brooklyn Nets | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 98.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | |||||
15 Washington Wizards | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 99.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% | |||||||
Western Conference
| Direct | Play-in | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Miss | Play-in | Playoffs |
1 San Antonio Spurs | 53.3% | 29.5% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
2 Oklahoma City Thunder | 37.1% | 38.2% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
3 Denver Nuggets | 3.9% | 11.2% | 22.1% | 18.6% | 14.6% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 18.2% | 93.4% |
4 Houston Rockets | 2.0% | 6.6% | 15.4% | 17.0% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 27.0% | 88.9% |
5 Los Angeles Lakers | 1.5% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 30.8% | 86.5% |
6 Minnesota Timberwolves | 1.0% | 3.9% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 38.9% | 81.0% |
7 Phoenix Suns | 0.4% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 51.8% | 68.5% |
8 LA Clippers | 0.4% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 51.9% | 68.3% |
9 Portland Trail Blazers | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 55.1% | 64.3% |
10 Golden State Warriors | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 20.2% | 43.1% | 49.3% | 24.3% |
11 New Orleans Pelicans | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 17.3% | 58.4% | 37.6% | 15.3% |
12 Dallas Mavericks | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 9.7% | 80.2% | 18.7% | 5.5% | |
13 Sacramento Kings | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 89.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | ||
14 Utah Jazz | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 95.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | |||
15 Memphis Grizzlies | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 96.2% | 3.7% | 0.7% | |||
model 2026.08.1+943bde8b · generated Aug 29, 2026, 3:26 PM UTC