Hardwood
Calibrated NBA forecasting
Game and season probabilities, scored against the closing line. The model does not carry market features, so it is measured against the market rather than trained on it — and it loses, by a known and published margin.
Season
2027
Games forecast
1,200
With a line
0
Flagged as value
0
Next slate · Tuesday, October 20
All games
BOS
1582
DET
1588
- Proj. margin
- DET +2.8
- Proj. total
- 217.4
- Proj. score
- 107–110
No sportsbook line published for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the forecast against.
Match detail
PHI
1522
NY
1674
- Proj. margin
- NY +9.9
- Proj. total
- 218.5
- Proj. score
- 104–114
No sportsbook line published for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the forecast against.
Match detail
OKC
1642
SA
1657
- Proj. margin
- SA +3.3
- Proj. total
- 219.6
- Proj. score
- 108–111
No sportsbook line published for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the forecast against.
Match detailTitle odds
Full projection
Power ratings
All 30Evidence
Aug 24, 2026, 1:42 PM UTC| Forecaster | Brier | Gap to close |
|---|---|---|
| Market (closing line) | 0.2070 | — |
| This model | 0.2141 | +0.0071 |
- Games scored
- 14,600
- Walk-forward n
- 25,749
- Walk-forward Brier
- 0.2106
- Calibration error
- 0.0114
historical walk-forward; not a live published record — the closing line is better (paired bootstrap 0.00712, 95% CI [0.00573, 0.00849]), which is the expected result for a model that carries no market features. Why the market is the benchmark
model 2026.08.1+943bde8b · generated Aug 29, 2026, 3:26 PM UTC