First Round · 2025-26
6 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 18
HOU 98@
LAL 10729·19·18·32 / 33·17·25·3257%Game 2Apr 21HOU 94@LAL 10126·25·17·26 / 33·21·21·2659%Game 3Apr 24LAL 112@HOU 108OT39·24·17·21 / 32·20·23·2640%Game 4Apr 26LAL 96@HOU 11521·26·18·31 / 26·30·34·2558%Game 5Apr 29HOU 99@LAL 9321·30·25·23 / 28·19·20·2641%Game 6May 1LAL 98@HOU 7823·26·22·27 / 18·13·24·2336%
HOU 98@LAL 10729·19·18·32 / 33·17·25·3257%Game 2Apr 21HOU 94@LAL 10126·25·17·26 / 33·21·21·2659%Game 3Apr 24LAL 112@HOU 108OT39·24·17·21 / 32·20·23·2640%Game 4Apr 26LAL 96@HOU 11521·26·18·31 / 26·30·34·2558%Game 5Apr 29HOU 99@LAL 9321·30·25·23 / 28·19·20·2641%Game 6May 1LAL 98@HOU 7823·26·22·27 / 18·13·24·2336%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
48.6%
Brier over the series
0.2733
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.