Conference Semifinals · 2025-26
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 4
MIN 104@
SA 10224·21·24·35 / 23·22·27·3020%Game 2May 6MIN 95@SA 13317·18·28·32 / 24·35·39·3578%Game 3May 8SA 115@MIN 10823·28·35·29 / 22·29·28·2960%Game 4May 10SA 109@MIN 11430·26·28·25 / 34·26·20·3439%Game 5May 12MIN 97@SA 12630·17·26·24 / 34·25·32·3579%Game 6May 15SA 139@MIN 10936·38·36·29 / 27·34·23·2561%
MIN 104@SA 10224·21·24·35 / 23·22·27·3020%Game 2May 6MIN 95@SA 13317·18·28·32 / 24·35·39·3578%Game 3May 8SA 115@MIN 10823·28·35·29 / 22·29·28·2960%Game 4May 10SA 109@MIN 11430·26·28·25 / 34·26·20·3439%Game 5May 12MIN 97@SA 12630·17·26·24 / 34·25·32·3579%Game 6May 15SA 139@MIN 10936·38·36·29 / 27·34·23·2561%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
56.2%
Brier over the series
0.2348
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.