First Round · 2025-26
5 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
POR 98@
SA 11121·28·23·26 / 30·29·28·2482%Game 2Apr 21POR 106@SA 10327·30·22·27 / 28·29·23·2317%Game 3Apr 24SA 120@POR 10827·32·29·32 / 29·36·22·2160%Game 4Apr 26SA 114@POR 9323·18·33·40 / 25·33·16·1963%Game 5Apr 28POR 95@SA 11424·21·20·30 / 36·29·21·2884%
POR 98@SA 11121·28·23·26 / 30·29·28·2482%Game 2Apr 21POR 106@SA 10327·30·22·27 / 28·29·23·2317%Game 3Apr 24SA 120@POR 10827·32·29·32 / 29·36·22·2160%Game 4Apr 26SA 114@POR 9323·18·33·40 / 25·33·16·1963%Game 5Apr 28POR 95@SA 11424·21·20·30 / 36·29·21·2884%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
61.1%
Brier over the series
0.2089
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.