First Round · 2011-12
4 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 28
DAL 98@
OKC 9926·25·22·25 / 22·26·21·3079%Game 2Apr 30DAL 99@OKC 10224·26·27·22 / 32·25·22·2378%Game 3May 3OKC 95@DAL 7932·18·25·20 / 26·15·16·2251%Game 4May 5OKC 103@DAL 9726·21·21·35 / 24·23·34·1655%
DAL 98@OKC 9926·25·22·25 / 22·26·21·3079%Game 2Apr 30DAL 99@OKC 10224·26·27·22 / 32·25·22·2378%Game 3May 3OKC 95@DAL 7932·18·25·20 / 26·15·16·2251%Game 4May 5OKC 103@DAL 9726·21·21·35 / 24·23·34·1655%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
66.0%
Brier over the series
0.1329
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.