Conference Finals · 2011-12
7 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 28
BOS 79@
MIA 9311·35·15·18 / 21·25·26·2170%Game 2May 30
BOS 111@
MIA 115OT24·29·22·24 / 18·28·35·1871%Game 3Jun 1
MIA 91@
BOS 10128·14·21·28 / 30·25·30·1656%Game 4Jun 3
MIA 91@
BOS 93OT23·24·21·21 / 34·27·12·1659%Game 5Jun 5
BOS 94@
MIA 9016·24·25·29 / 24·18·18·3033%Game 6Jun 7
MIA 98@
BOS 7926·29·19·24 / 16·26·19·1838%Game 7Jun 9
BOS 88@
MIA 10127·26·20·15 / 23·23·27·2870%
Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
56.6%
Brier over the series
0.2098
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.