Conference Semifinals · 2011-12
7 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1May 12
PHI 91@
BOS 9228·19·24·20 / 18·24·25·2573%Game 2May 14PHI 82@BOS 8121·15·21·25 / 25·13·11·3226%Game 3May 16BOS 107@PHI 9128·32·29·18 / 33·16·17·2548%Game 4May 18BOS 83@PHI 9224·22·17·20 / 12·19·28·3349%Game 5May 21PHI 85@BOS 10127·23·16·19 / 23·24·28·2673%Game 6May 23BOS 75@PHI 8219·17·20·19 / 22·11·27·2251%Game 7May 26PHI 75@BOS 8520·13·19·23 / 20·21·14·3073%
PHI 91@BOS 9228·19·24·20 / 18·24·25·2573%Game 2May 14PHI 82@BOS 8121·15·21·25 / 25·13·11·3226%Game 3May 16BOS 107@PHI 9128·32·29·18 / 33·16·17·2548%Game 4May 18BOS 83@PHI 9224·22·17·20 / 12·19·28·3349%Game 5May 21PHI 85@BOS 10127·23·16·19 / 23·24·28·2673%Game 6May 23BOS 75@PHI 8219·17·20·19 / 22·11·27·2251%Game 7May 26PHI 75@BOS 8520·13·19·23 / 20·21·14·3073%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
56.0%
Brier over the series
0.2199
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.