NBA Finals · 2011-12
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 12
MIA 94@
OKC 10529·25·19·21 / 22·25·27·3173%Game 2Jun 14MIA 100@OKC 9627·28·23·22 / 15·28·24·2927%Game 3Jun 17OKC 85@MIA 9120·26·21·18 / 26·21·22·2260%Game 4Jun 19OKC 98@MIA 10433·16·26·23 / 19·27·33·2562%Game 5Jun 21OKC 106@MIA 12126·23·22·35 / 31·28·36·2664%
MIA 94@OKC 10529·25·19·21 / 22·25·27·3173%Game 2Jun 14MIA 100@OKC 9627·28·23·22 / 15·28·24·2927%Game 3Jun 17OKC 85@MIA 9120·26·21·18 / 26·21·22·2260%Game 4Jun 19OKC 98@MIA 10433·16·26·23 / 19·27·33·2562%Game 5Jun 21OKC 106@MIA 12126·23·22·35 / 31·28·36·2664%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
57.0%
Brier over the series
0.2099
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.