First Round · 2011-12
5 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 28
NY 67@
MIA 10018·13·16·20 / 24·30·27·1965%Game 2Apr 30NY 94@MIA 10424·23·22·25 / 27·26·25·2671%Game 3May 3MIA 87@NY 7019·17·22·29 / 19·21·16·1445%Game 4May 6MIA 87@NY 8918·26·17·26 / 20·18·26·2550%Game 5May 9NY 94@MIA 10624·20·23·27 / 28·27·26·2575%
NY 67@MIA 10018·13·16·20 / 24·30·27·1965%Game 2Apr 30NY 94@MIA 10424·23·22·25 / 27·26·25·2671%Game 3May 3MIA 87@NY 7019·17·22·29 / 19·21·16·1445%Game 4May 6MIA 87@NY 8918·26·17·26 / 20·18·26·2550%Game 5May 9NY 94@MIA 10624·20·23·27 / 28·27·26·2575%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
61.3%
Brier over the series
0.1629
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.