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Hardwood
2011-12 season

First Round · 2011-12

Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers

4

final
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets

3

7 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 29Denver NuggetsDEN 88@Los Angeles LakersLAL 10314·26·24·24 / 27·23·27·2661%Game 2May 1Denver NuggetsDEN 100@Los Angeles LakersLAL 10425·23·26·26 / 32·23·26·2365%Game 3May 4Los Angeles LakersLAL 84@Denver NuggetsDEN 9914·25·26·19 / 30·25·17·2765%Game 4May 6Los Angeles LakersLAL 92@Denver NuggetsDEN 8826·19·25·22 / 28·23·20·1731%Game 5May 8Denver NuggetsDEN 102@Los Angeles LakersLAL 9926·23·27·26 / 23·20·22·3436%Game 6May 10Los Angeles LakersLAL 96@Denver NuggetsDEN 11320·25·23·28 / 30·24·36·2367%Game 7May 12Denver NuggetsDEN 87@Los Angeles LakersLAL 9624·18·26·19 / 25·23·21·2759%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

54.9%

Brier over the series

0.2224

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works