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Hardwood
2011-12 season

First Round · 2011-12

Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies

3

final
LA Clippers
LA Clippers

4

7 games · LA Clippers advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 29LA ClippersLAC 99@Memphis GrizzliesMEM 9816·23·25·35 / 34·24·27·1334%Game 2May 2LA ClippersLAC 98@Memphis GrizzliesMEM 10526·21·22·29 / 23·28·24·3065%Game 3May 5Memphis GrizzliesMEM 86@LA ClippersLAC 8722·24·25·15 / 23·27·14·2362%Game 4May 7Memphis GrizzliesMEM 97@LA ClippersLAC 101OT26·19·19·23 / 32·19·18·1863%Game 5May 9LA ClippersLAC 80@Memphis GrizzliesMEM 9222·20·23·15 / 36·21·20·1566%Game 6May 11Memphis GrizzliesMEM 90@LA ClippersLAC 8825·17·24·24 / 16·22·28·2240%Game 7May 13LA ClippersLAC 82@Memphis GrizzliesMEM 7216·23·16·27 / 13·25·18·1632%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

51.7%

Brier over the series

0.2545

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works