IND v ORL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2011-12

4

final

1

5 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

IND 7721·30·13·17 / 22·22·19·1423%Game 2Apr 30

IND 9321·23·13·21 / 24·18·30·2174%Game 3May 2

ORL 7423·21·32·21 / 14·24·17·1949%Game 4May 5

ORL 99OT22·24·27·16 / 19·25·17·2853%Game 5May 8

IND 10519·28·24·16 / 28·22·19·3679%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

55.8%

Brier over the series

0.2356

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.