First Round · 2011-12
4 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 29
UTAH 91@
SA 10622·25·23·21 / 28·26·31·2183%Game 2May 2UTAH 83@SA 11417·11·25·30 / 28·25·34·2784%Game 3May 5SA 102@UTAH 9030·22·23·27 / 28·22·18·2258%Game 4May 7SA 87@UTAH 8122·28·18·19 / 19·23·16·2360%
UTAH 91@SA 10622·25·23·21 / 28·26·31·2183%Game 2May 2UTAH 83@SA 11417·11·25·30 / 28·25·34·2784%Game 3May 5SA 102@UTAH 9030·22·23·27 / 28·22·18·2258%Game 4May 7SA 87@UTAH 8122·28·18·19 / 19·23·16·2360%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
71.1%
Brier over the series
0.0988
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.