Conference Semifinals · 2011-12
4 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 15
LAC 92@
SA 10829·20·23·20 / 29·28·30·2185%Game 2May 17LAC 88@SA 10521·21·25·21 / 29·17·32·2784%Game 3May 19SA 96@LAC 8611·32·26·27 / 33·20·8·2559%Game 4May 20SA 102@LAC 9926·25·23·28 / 21·26·28·2460%
LAC 92@SA 10829·20·23·20 / 29·28·30·2185%Game 2May 17LAC 88@SA 10521·21·25·21 / 29·17·32·2784%Game 3May 19SA 96@LAC 8611·32·26·27 / 33·20·8·2559%Game 4May 20SA 102@LAC 9926·25·23·28 / 21·26·28·2460%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
72.1%
Brier over the series
0.0935
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.