ATL v BOS · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2011-12

2

final

4

6 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

ATL 8318·17·18·21 / 31·18·16·1863%Game 2May 1

ATL 8024·17·20·26 / 24·20·22·1435%Game 3May 4

BOS 90OT19·19·20·22 / 17·23·20·2068%Game 4May 6

BOS 10119·22·22·16 / 32·32·26·1170%Game 5May 8

ATL 8721·19·24·22 / 15·25·26·2157%Game 6May 10

BOS 8323·18·22·17 / 20·27·20·1671%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

5 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

60.5%

Brier over the series

0.1708

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.