Conference Finals · 2011-12
6 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1May 27
OKC 98@
SA 10118·29·24·27 / 24·22·16·3975%Game 2May 29OKC 111@SA 12022·22·32·35 / 28·27·37·2875%Game 3May 31SA 82@OKC 10224·17·19·22 / 22·32·24·2456%Game 4Jun 2SA 103@OKC 10926·17·28·32 / 26·29·20·3460%Game 5Jun 4OKC 108@SA 10326·26·29·27 / 21·23·28·3132%Game 6Jun 6SA 99@OKC 10734·29·18·18 / 20·28·32·2765%
OKC 98@SA 10118·29·24·27 / 24·22·16·3975%Game 2May 29OKC 111@SA 12022·22·32·35 / 28·27·37·2875%Game 3May 31SA 82@OKC 10224·17·19·22 / 22·32·24·2456%Game 4Jun 2SA 103@OKC 10926·17·28·32 / 26·29·20·3460%Game 5Jun 4OKC 108@SA 10326·26·29·27 / 21·23·28·3132%Game 6Jun 6SA 99@OKC 10734·29·18·18 / 20·28·32·2765%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
60.4%
Brier over the series
0.1783
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.