Conference Semifinals · 2011-12
6 games · Miami Heat advanced
Every game
Game 1May 13
IND 86@
MIA 9523·25·22·16 / 20·22·28·2568%Game 2May 15IND 78@MIA 7517·16·28·17 / 21·17·14·2331%Game 3May 17MIA 75@IND 9426·17·12·20 / 17·26·26·2561%Game 4May 20MIA 101@IND 9318·28·30·25 / 25·29·16·2335%Game 5May 22IND 83@MIA 11520·20·17·26 / 26·23·27·3966%Game 6May 24MIA 105@IND 9321·30·28·26 / 28·25·16·2443%
IND 86@MIA 9523·25·22·16 / 20·22·28·2568%Game 2May 15IND 78@MIA 7517·16·28·17 / 21·17·14·2331%Game 3May 17MIA 75@IND 9426·17·12·20 / 17·26·26·2561%Game 4May 20MIA 101@IND 9318·28·30·25 / 25·29·16·2335%Game 5May 22IND 83@MIA 11520·20·17·26 / 26·23·27·3966%Game 6May 24MIA 105@IND 9321·30·28·26 / 28·25·16·2443%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
50.6%
Brier over the series
0.2664
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.