First Round · 2011-12
6 games · Philadelphia 76ers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 28
PHI 91@
CHI 10324·18·24·25 / 28·25·26·2482%Game 2May 1PHI 109@CHI 9225·22·36·26 / 28·27·14·2317%Game 3May 4CHI 74@PHI 7920·19·21·14 / 19·21·11·2849%Game 4May 6CHI 82@PHI 8915·27·21·19 / 24·20·20·2552%Game 5May 8PHI 69@CHI 7716·10·22·21 / 17·18·22·2073%Game 6May 10CHI 78@PHI 7922·18·23·15 / 24·24·15·1652%
PHI 91@CHI 10324·18·24·25 / 28·25·26·2482%Game 2May 1PHI 109@CHI 9225·22·36·26 / 28·27·14·2317%Game 3May 4CHI 74@PHI 7920·19·21·14 / 19·21·11·2849%Game 4May 6CHI 82@PHI 8915·27·21·19 / 24·20·20·2552%Game 5May 8PHI 69@CHI 7716·10·22·21 / 17·18·22·2073%Game 6May 10CHI 78@PHI 7922·18·23·15 / 24·24·15·1652%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
54.2%
Brier over the series
0.2517
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.