Conference Semifinals · 2024-25
5 games · Indiana Pacers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 4
IND 121@
CLE 11236·28·28·29 / 25·33·32·2225%Game 2May 6IND 120@CLE 11915·35·34·36 / 32·29·37·2129%Game 3May 9CLE 126@IND 10432·34·31·29 / 32·13·34·2546%Game 4May 11CLE 109@IND 12923·16·38·32 / 38·42·29·2049%Game 5May 13IND 114@CLE 10519·33·33·29 / 31·25·20·2931%
IND 121@CLE 11236·28·28·29 / 25·33·32·2225%Game 2May 6IND 120@CLE 11915·35·34·36 / 32·29·37·2129%Game 3May 9CLE 126@IND 10432·34·31·29 / 32·13·34·2546%Game 4May 11CLE 109@IND 12923·16·38·32 / 38·42·29·2049%Game 5May 13IND 114@CLE 10519·33·33·29 / 31·25·20·2931%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
0 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
36.3%
Brier over the series
0.4148
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.