Conference Semifinals · 2024-25
7 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1May 5
DEN 121@
OKC 11926·24·35·36 / 27·33·30·2917%Game 2May 7DEN 106@OKC 14921·35·20·30 / 45·42·37·2579%Game 3May 9OKC 104@DEN 113OT28·28·27·19 / 22·29·29·2237%Game 4May 11OKC 92@DEN 8717·25·21·29 / 8·28·33·1859%Game 5May 13DEN 105@OKC 11228·28·30·19 / 27·27·24·3481%Game 6May 15OKC 107@DEN 11928·33·21·25 / 31·27·32·2940%Game 7May 18DEN 93@OKC 12526·20·26·21 / 21·39·37·2877%
DEN 121@OKC 11926·24·35·36 / 27·33·30·2917%Game 2May 7DEN 106@OKC 14921·35·20·30 / 45·42·37·2579%Game 3May 9OKC 104@DEN 113OT28·28·27·19 / 22·29·29·2237%Game 4May 11OKC 92@DEN 8717·25·21·29 / 8·28·33·1859%Game 5May 13DEN 105@OKC 11228·28·30·19 / 27·27·24·3481%Game 6May 15OKC 107@DEN 11928·33·21·25 / 31·27·32·2940%Game 7May 18DEN 93@OKC 12526·20·26·21 / 21·39·37·2877%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
55.6%
Brier over the series
0.2503
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.