First Round · 2024-25
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
MIA 100@
CLE 12124·30·25·21 / 31·31·25·3478%Game 2Apr 23MIA 112@CLE 12124·27·29·32 / 25·43·25·2877%Game 3Apr 26CLE 124@MIA 8733·29·26·36 / 20·22·22·2359%Game 4Apr 28CLE 138@MIA 8343·29·39·27 / 17·16·30·2064%
MIA 100@CLE 12124·30·25·21 / 31·31·25·3478%Game 2Apr 23MIA 112@CLE 12124·27·29·32 / 25·43·25·2877%Game 3Apr 26CLE 124@MIA 8733·29·26·36 / 20·22·22·2359%Game 4Apr 28CLE 138@MIA 8343·29·39·27 / 17·16·30·2064%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
69.6%
Brier over the series
0.0994
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.