Conference Semifinals · 2024-25
5 games · Minnesota Timberwolves advanced
Every game
Game 1May 6
GS 99@
MIN 8818·26·36·19 / 20·11·29·2826%Game 2May 8GS 93@MIN 11715·24·26·28 / 29·27·29·3267%Game 3May 10MIN 102@GS 9721·19·29·33 / 21·21·31·2448%Game 4May 12MIN 117@GS 11027·31·39·20 / 28·32·17·3348%Game 5May 14GS 110@MIN 12123·24·25·38 / 30·32·31·2873%
GS 99@MIN 8818·26·36·19 / 20·11·29·2826%Game 2May 8GS 93@MIN 11715·24·26·28 / 29·27·29·3267%Game 3May 10MIN 102@GS 9721·19·29·33 / 21·21·31·2448%Game 4May 12MIN 117@GS 11027·31·39·20 / 28·32·17·3348%Game 5May 14GS 110@MIN 12123·24·25·38 / 30·32·31·2873%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
52.4%
Brier over the series
0.2539
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.