First Round · 2024-25
5 games · Minnesota Timberwolves advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 19
MIN 117@
LAL 9521·38·35·23 / 28·20·30·1748%Game 2Apr 22MIN 85@LAL 9415·28·22·20 / 34·24·23·1347%Game 3Apr 25LAL 104@MIN 11626·32·26·20 / 32·22·32·3071%Game 4Apr 27LAL 113@MIN 11632·26·36·19 / 28·33·23·3273%Game 5Apr 30MIN 103@LAL 9631·28·22·22 / 22·27·31·1652%
MIN 117@LAL 9521·38·35·23 / 28·20·30·1748%Game 2Apr 22MIN 85@LAL 9415·28·22·20 / 34·24·23·1347%Game 3Apr 25LAL 104@MIN 11626·32·26·20 / 32·22·32·3071%Game 4Apr 27LAL 113@MIN 11632·26·36·19 / 28·33·23·3273%Game 5Apr 30MIN 103@LAL 9631·28·22·22 / 22·27·31·1652%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
58.0%
Brier over the series
0.1890
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.