Conference Finals · 2024-25
5 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1May 20
MIN 88@
OKC 11423·25·18·22 / 20·24·32·3867%Game 2May 22MIN 103@OKC 11825·25·21·32 / 29·29·35·2574%Game 3May 24OKC 101@MIN 14314·27·29·31 / 34·38·35·3649%Game 4May 26OKC 128@MIN 12637·28·25·38 / 30·27·28·4142%Game 5May 28MIN 94@OKC 1249·23·30·32 / 26·39·23·3669%
MIN 88@OKC 11423·25·18·22 / 20·24·32·3867%Game 2May 22MIN 103@OKC 11825·25·21·32 / 29·29·35·2574%Game 3May 24OKC 101@MIN 14314·27·29·31 / 34·38·35·3649%Game 4May 26OKC 128@MIN 12637·28·25·38 / 30·27·28·4142%Game 5May 28MIN 94@OKC 1249·23·30·32 / 26·39·23·3669%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
60.1%
Brier over the series
0.1742
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.