First Round · 2024-25
7 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
GS 95@
HOU 8518·29·22·26 / 21·13·26·2543%Game 2Apr 23GS 94@HOU 10918·28·25·23 / 28·32·27·2254%Game 3Apr 26HOU 93@GS 10422·27·22·22 / 18·28·23·3564%Game 4Apr 28HOU 106@GS 10926·31·23·26 / 28·22·32·2767%Game 5Apr 30GS 116@HOU 13124·25·31·36 / 40·36·31·2454%Game 6May 2HOU 115@GS 10725·28·33·29 / 21·27·36·2335%Game 7May 4GS 103@HOU 8923·28·19·33 / 19·20·23·2740%
GS 95@HOU 8518·29·22·26 / 21·13·26·2543%Game 2Apr 23GS 94@HOU 10918·28·25·23 / 28·32·27·2254%Game 3Apr 26HOU 93@GS 10422·27·22·22 / 18·28·23·3564%Game 4Apr 28HOU 106@GS 10926·31·23·26 / 28·22·32·2767%Game 5Apr 30GS 116@HOU 13124·25·31·36 / 40·36·31·2454%Game 6May 2HOU 115@GS 10725·28·33·29 / 21·27·36·2335%Game 7May 4GS 103@HOU 8923·28·19·33 / 19·20·23·2740%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
51.1%
Brier over the series
0.2520
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.