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Hardwood
2024-25 season

NBA Finals · 2024-25

Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder

4

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

3

7 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced

Every game

Game 1Jun 5Indiana PacersIND 111@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 11020·25·31·35 / 29·28·28·2526%Game 2Jun 8Indiana PacersIND 107@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 12320·21·33·33 / 26·33·34·3072%Game 3Jun 11Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 107@Indiana PacersIND 11632·28·29·18 / 24·40·20·3249%Game 4Jun 13Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 111@Indiana PacersIND 10434·23·23·31 / 35·25·27·1748%Game 5Jun 16Indiana PacersIND 109@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 12022·23·34·30 / 32·27·28·3374%Game 6Jun 19Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 91@Indiana PacersIND 10825·17·18·31 / 28·36·26·1848%Game 7Jun 22Indiana PacersIND 91@Oklahoma City ThunderOKC 10322·26·20·23 / 25·22·34·2270%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

55.4%

Brier over the series

0.2252

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works