DEN v LAC · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2024-25

4

final

3

7 games · Denver Nuggets advanced

Every game

DEN 112OT35·18·22·23 / 27·22·23·2652%Game 2Apr 21

DEN 10225·30·23·27 / 31·21·24·2646%Game 3Apr 24

LAC 11728·19·23·13 / 35·30·25·2769%Game 4Apr 26

LAC 9927·23·35·16 / 22·26·17·3426%Game 5Apr 29

DEN 13123·36·24·32 / 35·32·32·3249%Game 6May 1

LAC 11128·29·22·26 / 25·33·32·2168%Game 7May 3

DEN 12026·21·19·35 / 21·37·35·2753%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

51.9%

Brier over the series

0.2494

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.