First Round · 2024-25
4 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
MEM 80@
OKC 13120·16·27·17 / 32·36·44·1986%Game 2Apr 22MEM 99@OKC 11817·35·27·20 / 32·38·20·2886%Game 3Apr 24OKC 114@MEM 10829·22·36·27 / 40·37·18·1369%Game 4Apr 26OKC 117@MEM 11534·26·28·29 / 31·28·26·3069%
MEM 80@OKC 13120·16·27·17 / 32·36·44·1986%Game 2Apr 22MEM 99@OKC 11817·35·27·20 / 32·38·20·2886%Game 3Apr 24OKC 114@MEM 10829·22·36·27 / 40·37·18·1369%Game 4Apr 26OKC 117@MEM 11534·26·28·29 / 31·28·26·3069%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
77.4%
Brier over the series
0.0579
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.