First Round · 2023-24
6 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 21
DAL 97@
LAC 10922·8·34·33 / 34·22·31·2254%Game 2Apr 23DAL 96@LAC 9323·22·20·31 / 19·22·25·2742%Game 3Apr 26LAC 90@DAL 10123·18·26·23 / 18·36·24·2365%Game 4Apr 28LAC 116@DAL 11139·27·16·34 / 16·33·29·3333%Game 5May 1DAL 123@LAC 9325·31·33·34 / 24·22·23·2443%Game 6May 3LAC 101@DAL 11426·26·20·29 / 34·18·35·2771%
DAL 97@LAC 10922·8·34·33 / 34·22·31·2254%Game 2Apr 23DAL 96@LAC 9323·22·20·31 / 19·22·25·2742%Game 3Apr 26LAC 90@DAL 10123·18·26·23 / 18·36·24·2365%Game 4Apr 28LAC 116@DAL 11139·27·16·34 / 16·33·29·3333%Game 5May 1DAL 123@LAC 9325·31·33·34 / 24·22·23·2443%Game 6May 3LAC 101@DAL 11426·26·20·29 / 34·18·35·2771%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
51.4%
Brier over the series
0.2534
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.