DEN v LAL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2023-24

4

final

Los Angeles Lakers

1

5 games · Denver Nuggets advanced

Every game

DEN 11433·27·18·25 / 25·32·32·2571%Game 2Apr 22

DEN 10128·31·20·20 / 24·20·25·3272%Game 3Apr 25

LAL 10523·26·34·29 / 33·20·22·3050%Game 4Apr 27

LAL 11923·25·32·28 / 28·33·30·2848%Game 5Apr 29

DEN 10824·29·26·27 / 28·22·31·2771%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

62.5%

Brier over the series

0.1526

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.