First Round · 2023-24
7 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 20
ORL 83@
CLE 9726·15·17·25 / 33·20·20·2456%Game 2Apr 22ORL 86@CLE 9618·26·21·21 / 30·28·22·1659%Game 3Apr 25CLE 83@ORL 12121·24·16·22 / 31·30·35·2557%Game 4Apr 27CLE 89@ORL 11223·37·10·19 / 22·29·37·2464%Game 5Apr 30ORL 103@CLE 10423·24·23·33 / 33·15·27·2952%Game 6May 3CLE 96@ORL 10325·24·29·18 / 29·24·20·3067%Game 7May 5ORL 94@CLE 10624·29·15·26 / 18·25·33·3052%
ORL 83@CLE 9726·15·17·25 / 33·20·20·2456%Game 2Apr 22ORL 86@CLE 9618·26·21·21 / 30·28·22·1659%Game 3Apr 25CLE 83@ORL 12121·24·16·22 / 31·30·35·2557%Game 4Apr 27CLE 89@ORL 11223·37·10·19 / 22·29·37·2464%Game 5Apr 30ORL 103@CLE 10423·24·23·33 / 33·15·27·2952%Game 6May 3CLE 96@ORL 10325·24·29·18 / 29·24·20·3067%Game 7May 5ORL 94@CLE 10624·29·15·26 / 18·25·33·3052%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
7 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
58.2%
Brier over the series
0.1773
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.