Conference Semifinals · 2023-24
5 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1May 7
CLE 95@
BOS 12034·15·28·18 / 40·19·33·2889%Game 2May 9CLE 118@BOS 9430·24·36·28 / 24·30·24·1612%Game 3May 11BOS 106@CLE 9330·27·27·22 / 28·20·21·2462%Game 4May 13BOS 109@CLE 10237·25·26·21 / 30·27·21·2463%Game 5May 15CLE 98@BOS 11328·24·26·20 / 28·30·27·2883%
CLE 95@BOS 12034·15·28·18 / 40·19·33·2889%Game 2May 9CLE 118@BOS 9430·24·36·28 / 24·30·24·1612%Game 3May 11BOS 106@CLE 9330·27·27·22 / 28·20·21·2462%Game 4May 13BOS 109@CLE 10237·25·26·21 / 30·27·21·2463%Game 5May 15CLE 98@BOS 11328·24·26·20 / 28·30·27·2883%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
61.9%
Brier over the series
0.2195
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.