First Round · 2023-24
4 games · Oklahoma City Thunder advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 21
NO 92@
OKC 9417·26·25·24 / 17·26·31·2073%Game 2Apr 24NO 92@OKC 12422·28·24·18 / 35·28·29·3270%Game 3Apr 27OKC 106@NO 8523·37·25·21 / 19·27·23·1651%Game 4Apr 29OKC 97@NO 8921·23·26·27 / 21·22·28·1855%
NO 92@OKC 9417·26·25·24 / 17·26·31·2073%Game 2Apr 24NO 92@OKC 12422·28·24·18 / 35·28·29·3270%Game 3Apr 27OKC 106@NO 8523·37·25·21 / 19·27·23·1651%Game 4Apr 29OKC 97@NO 8921·23·26·27 / 21·22·28·1855%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
62.3%
Brier over the series
0.1504
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.