BOS v MIA · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2023-24

4

final

1

5 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

BOS 11421·24·14·35 / 26·34·31·2383%Game 2Apr 24

BOS 10128·30·27·26 / 27·34·18·2218%Game 3Apr 27

MIA 8421·42·24·17 / 12·27·22·2355%Game 4Apr 29

MIA 8834·19·28·21 / 24·12·23·2959%Game 5May 1

BOS 11823·23·20·18 / 41·27·30·2081%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

59.1%

Brier over the series

0.2216

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.