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Hardwood
2023-24 season

Conference Semifinals · 2023-24

New York Knicks
New York Knicks

3

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

4

7 games · Indiana Pacers advanced

Every game

Game 1May 6Indiana PacersIND 117@New York KnicksNY 12124·31·32·30 / 27·22·33·3961%Game 2May 8Indiana PacersIND 121@New York KnicksNY 13036·37·18·30 / 36·27·36·3162%Game 3May 10New York KnicksNY 106@Indiana PacersIND 11120·38·32·16 / 29·34·22·2657%Game 4May 12New York KnicksNY 89@Indiana PacersIND 12114·27·22·26 / 34·35·32·2059%Game 5May 14Indiana PacersIND 91@New York KnicksNY 12132·22·21·16 / 38·31·27·2557%Game 6May 17New York KnicksNY 103@Indiana PacersIND 11630·21·24·28 / 29·32·27·2859%Game 7May 19Indiana PacersIND 130@New York KnicksNY 10939·31·31·29 / 27·28·29·2540%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

6 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

56.6%

Brier over the series

0.1931

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works