DEN v MIN · Conference Semifinals · Hardwood

Conference Semifinals · 2023-24

3

final

Minnesota Timberwolves

4

7 games · Minnesota Timberwolves advanced

Every game

DEN 9923·17·33·33 / 25·19·27·2840%Game 2May 6

DEN 8028·33·21·24 / 20·15·25·2042%Game 3May 10

MIN 9028·28·37·24 / 20·21·25·2428%Game 4May 12

MIN 10729·35·26·25 / 24·25·30·2836%Game 5May 14

DEN 11226·18·30·23 / 28·22·38·2463%Game 6May 16

MIN 11514·26·21·9 / 31·28·27·2959%Game 7May 19

DEN 9019·19·28·32 / 24·29·14·2343%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

44.4%

Brier over the series

0.3227

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.