Conference Finals · 2023-24
5 games · Dallas Mavericks advanced
Every game
Game 1May 22
DAL 108@
MIN 10527·32·23·26 / 33·29·21·2232%Game 2May 24DAL 109@MIN 10826·22·31·30 / 32·28·26·2233%Game 3May 26MIN 107@DAL 11628·24·35·20 / 33·27·27·2959%Game 4May 28MIN 105@DAL 10027·22·29·27 / 20·29·24·2739%Game 5May 30DAL 124@MIN 10335·34·28·27 / 19·21·33·3035%
DAL 108@MIN 10527·32·23·26 / 33·29·21·2232%Game 2May 24DAL 109@MIN 10826·22·31·30 / 32·28·26·2233%Game 3May 26MIN 107@DAL 11628·24·35·20 / 33·27·27·2959%Game 4May 28MIN 105@DAL 10027·22·29·27 / 20·29·24·2739%Game 5May 30DAL 124@MIN 10335·34·28·27 / 19·21·33·3035%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
1 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
39.4%
Brier over the series
0.3768
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.